000 AGXX40 KNHC 100659 AAB MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 AMENDED GULF OF MEXICO AND WARNINGS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE E AND CARRY THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM 27N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OUT OF THE AREA. THE 0210 UTC ASCAT PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE TODAY AND THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY. OVER NW WATER...E WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS BUILDING BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES MOVING IN AND A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SE CONUS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED LONGWAVE RIDGING. THIS RIDGING IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE GULF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE NW CORNER OF THE ZONE MON AND DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE ZONE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL IT IS WELL N OF THE AREA TO MEET UP WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TUE NIGHT/WED AND INTENSIFY. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE COLD FRONT OVER FORECAST WATERS...WITH THE 00Z GFS TRENDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE COASTAL LOW PASSING THROUGH NW WATERS TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE 0206 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N E OF 80W WITH STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES IS FORCED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND ONTO THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. WINDS WILL REACH JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY THROUGH THU. THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF AND ATLC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT...TURNING THE MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MORE NORTHERLY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLACKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN A NOTCH LATE THU INTO FRI. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE THE FRESH WINDS TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER FAR NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. GULF OF MEXICO... OBSERVATIONS AT THE 10 METER LEVEL INSIDE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST ZONE ARE HARD TO COME BY...BUT BUOY 42040 JUST INSIDE COASTAL ZONE AREA GMZ577 REPORTED 35-37 KT FROM 00Z-03Z AND NUMEROUS PLATFORMS AT 50 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT INSIDE THE OFFSHORE ZONE HAVE BEEN ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO THE MIDDLE GULF ZONE. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT PUSHES E-NE THROUGH THE NE GULF. THE 00Z GEFS AND 21Z SREF SHOW LITTLE CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING BEYOND 09Z THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED LONGWAVE RIDGING. THIS RIDGING IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH SE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE GULF WITH 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR SW GULF. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GEFS NO LONGER SHOWS A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS HERE AND THE 21Z SREFS ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FROM 15Z WED TO 21Z THU. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ALSO NO LONGER CARRY GALE FORCE WINDS HERE...CAPPING THEM OFF AT 30 KT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...GMZ084. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER