000 AGXX40 KNHC 091837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 138 PM EST SUN JAN 09 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 15 UTC SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1005 ABOUT 60 NM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW PRES THROUGH THE NRN GULF. A 1456 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED E TO SE WINDS OF 20+ KT E OF 85W IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND THE LOW...SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. OVERALL MODELS DEPICT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES E ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF N OF 28N AND WELL WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS AREA WHERE THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES HAVE A GALE WARNING. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE GULF N OF 28N TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MON EVENING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BISECTING THE GULF BY THEN. HIGH PRES IS SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT AWAITS THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGING OUT OF CENTRAL PLAINS. NONETHELESS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ENTERS THE GULF TUE WITH N TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE AND TO 25-30 KT OVER MOST OF THE GULF WED INTO THU. THE GEFS HAS BACKED OFF AND DOES NOT DEPICT ANY GALE PROBABILITIES NOR DOES THE OPERATIONAL CONTROL RUN. THUS WILL NOT MENTION POSSIBLE GALES THIS FCST PACKAGE. NONETHELESS THE WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRONG WINDS BUILDS SEAS TO 10-13 FT OVER A VAST PORTION OF THE GULF S OF 27N. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE GULF FRI. SW N ATLC... THE 1454 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS AS A N ATLC STORM CENTER MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 31N67W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STRONG OUT OF THE SE OVER NW WATERS MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOW PRES EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PER HPC EARLY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...THE NAM AND UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE SHEARED WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS...GEM GLOBAL...AND THE ECMWF WITH PREFERENCES TOWARD THE LARGER CLUSTER INCLUDING THE GFS. NONETHELESS THE LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TUE WHICH EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE WED AND FROM 26N65W TO SE CUBA LATE THU AND FROM 23N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE FRI. NW TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT... LOCALLY 30 KT FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE 1500 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH 20-25 KT NE WINDS FOUND IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPOTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE MODELS AGREE ON STRENGTHENING THE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND TROPICAL N ATLC N MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. WINDS WILL REACH JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE THROUGH THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 15 FT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND BRING STRONG NE WINDS TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU...AND OVER ALL THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...GMZ084. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER COBB