000 AGXX40 KNHC 090642 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST SUN JAN 09 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE 0230 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER FAR N WATERS E OF 74W. THE GALE WARNING IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE HERE AROUND SUNRISE AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS QUICKLY SHUTTLED OFF TO THE E. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUN...BUT WILL BECOME STRONG AND OUT OF THE SE OVER NW WATERS BY MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A NEW SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER NW WATERS TUE NIGHT...WITH THE CMC AND ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE COASTAL LOW. HPC PREFERS THE GFS...SO WILL STICK TO ITS FORECAST HERE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING E THROUGH THE ZONE THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE 0226 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH NE WINDS FOUND IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPOTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ACCORDING TO SHIP ZCDN9 AT 0400 UTC AND SHIP C6QM8 NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AT 0100 UTC. THE MODELS AGREE ON STRENGTHENING THE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...BY MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. WINDS WILL REACH JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MON THROUGH THU. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND BRING STRONG NE WINDS TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NW GULF SUN AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY LIES WELL WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS AREA WHERE THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES HAVE A GALE WARNING. WITHIN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AREA...THE CHANCES OF REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS DO NOT GO ABOVE 10 PERCENT 0000 TO 0600 UTC MON OVER THE MIDDLE GULF N OF 28N...BUT THEN THE GEFS SHOW AS HIGH AS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WHILE THE 2100 UTC SREFS SHOW AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MARGINAL GALE THERE TONIGHT AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL PUT A BRIEF GALE WARNING INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF N OF 28N. HIGH PRES IS SOMEWHAT SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR TUE WILL BRING STRONG NE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH THU. THE 00Z GEFS CALLS FOR A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BEHIND THIS SURGE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWS WINDS TO 40 KT IN THE FAR SW GULF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF ONLY CARRIES 35 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC THU. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS HERE TO HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR NOW. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...GMZ084. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER