000 AGXX40 KNHC 051922 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 222 PM EST WED JAN 05 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT STRUNG OVER THE NW GULF HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SWD AS A COLD FRONT AS THE BASE OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS TEXAS. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE CAPTURED THE TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE GULF AND THE ONSET OF SW 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PHILOSOPHY. THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT THROUGH THE GULF WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE S FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE FRI. A REINFORCING SURGE SLICES ACROSS THE NE GULF LATE FRI INTO SAT. RETURN FLOW OF A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT SETS IN OVER THE NW GULF LATE SAT WITH WINDS PICKING UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET INTERESTING SUN AS LOW PRES EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE ECMWF CARRIES A MUCH MORE INTENSE LOW THAN THE GFS AND THE UKMET. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FURTHEST S ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH IF VERIFIES IMPLIES GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF N OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR NOW SINCE IT IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER WILL COMPROMISE AND ALLOW FOR A TRACK RIGHT ALONG THE COAST IN LINE WITH THE WELL PERFORMING ECMWF AND WILL ASSESS FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS RATHER HIGH GIVEN THIS SCENARIO. IN ANY EVENT SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE MON WITH NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN ITS WAKE. SW N ATLC... A COLD-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N TONIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW MOVES SWIFTLY OFF THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT AND NE OF THE AREA BY LATE THU. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA VEER TO THE SW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 70W TONIGHT..AND SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF 25N THU. IN THE MEANTIME A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE AREA OFF THE SE COAST AND EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO EXTREME SE FLORIDA WITH NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE FRI WITH A LARGE SWATH 20 TO 30 KT OF WLY WINDS N OF 25N. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES EWD N OF 27N AND KEEPS WLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT GOING INTO SAT. GIVEN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW TIMING OF THESE FRONTS IS RATHER DIFFICULT AT BEST WELL INTO THE FORECAST. THUS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL BE USED. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SUN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NE TO E WINDS VEERING AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NW WATERS LATE SUN AND MON AS LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE NE GULF. AS IN THE GULF THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW AND WILL NEED TO ASSESS FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR POTENTIAL GALES FAR NW SECTIONS LATE MON AND BEYOND. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES N OF AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THU MORNING. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THU WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI AND GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREATER ANTILLES WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH SUN. MEANWHILE...CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FRESH TRADE WINDS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE SAT....AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER COBB