000 AGXX40 KNHC 040708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST TUE JAN 04 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER THE CONTROL OF 25 KT S-SW WINDS AT H85 ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE DRY AIR IN THE NE GULF AND THE DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 60 DEGREES FARTHER S. THE BOUNDARY HERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE NEXT FRONT ON WED. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE E ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WED. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH THE FORECAST THU THROUGH SAT. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ADAMANT ABOUT AMPLIFYING THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY CARRYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE LEAD COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THU...BUT THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE WIND AND IS SLOWER TO DIMINISH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS FRI BEFORE THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES IN SAT. FOR NOW...WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF AN OUTLIER. SW N ATLC... THE WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE ZONE WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SAVE THE SE CORNER WHERE AN OLD BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. NEW HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND WILL QUICKLY BE SENT SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES N WATERS WED. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED AND THEN DIVERGE WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN N ATLC. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ADAMANT ABOUT AMPLIFYING THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY CARRYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING THE WINDS DOWN IN THE WESTERN PORTION THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS PREFERRED FOR NOW...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES THU MORNING AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OVER NW WATERS WHICH LIKELY CAUSE ITS WINDS TO BE TOO STRONG. IT ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE SIMILAR PROBLEMS E OF THE AREA FRI MORNING WHICH CAUSES IT TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS IN NE WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT TO MENTION GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GENERATE GALES IN N WATERS BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT. STILL...THIS IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD AND THE MODELS ARE CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. WILL LIKELY WAIT ON ANY MENTION OF GALES FOR NOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SW N ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND N OF AN OLD BOUNDARY ALONG 17N IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE 0230 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH FRESH FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED MORNING WHILE DECREASING ELSEWHERE AND FINALLY THEN DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY THU MORNING. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THU WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT WITH LITTLE FANFARE. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER