000 AGXX40 KNHC 030652 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST MON JAN 03 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 0256 UTC ASCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TO SW FLORIDA THROUGH MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT TO THE SE TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK TROUGH TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES. THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS ENERGY...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS N. THIS ENERGY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH ON WED AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CARRYING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF AS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO AGREE ON CARRYING THE FRONT TO ALONG 24N BY THU NIGHT. THEY DIVERGE BY FRI WHEN THE ECMWF IS FASTER TO CARRY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NE WATERS AND IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF THAN THE GFS. THE OTHER MODELS SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND CARRY A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER TROUGH AT THAT TIME THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THE GFS WAS PREFERRED FOR THE FRI FORECAST. SW N ATLC... THE 0256 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS NW WINDS TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW WATERS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN THE 1023 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER N CENTRAL WATERS AS IT SENDS THE HIGH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. NEW HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE AND WILL ALSO QUICKLY BE SENT SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES N WATERS WED. THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THE FORECAST FOR LATE WED AND THU BECAME MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORT A FASTER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THAN THE 00Z GFS AND CMC. THE 00Z RUNS FROM TODAY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SIDING WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS FINE UNTIL UNTIL FRI WHEN THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTEST MODEL TO SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO NW WATERS COMPARED TO THE GFS...UKMET...AND CMC WHICH ARE ALL MORE POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SW N ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND N OF AN OLD BOUNDARY FROM 17N55W TO 14N59W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE 0250 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ARE CONFINED TO THE FAR NW AND FAR SE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE WHILE NWLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT REGIONAL ATLC WATERS AND MIX WITH NE WIND SWELL. FRESH FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED MORNING WHILE DECREASING ELSEWHERE AND FINALLY THEN DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WED THROUGH FRI. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER