000 AGXX40 KNHC 020648 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM EST SUN JAN 02 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 0316 ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT OVER THE NW GULF WHILE SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED NE TO SW ACROSS THE GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS COLD FRONT IS BEING REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS EXITING THE ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...STAYING ON AN EASTWARD PATH THAT WILL LEAVE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL STRING OUT THE FRONT AND PRODUCE A MODEST E MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION BECOMING ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE...PASSING THROUGH TAMPA BAY OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OLD FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE TO THE SE TEXAS COAST. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ENERGY. THIS ENERGY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES WED. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE 00Z GFS MOVING THIS ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND BUILDING WINDS TO 25 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CARRIES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WINDS. THE UKMET SIDES WITH THE FASTER ECMWF AND THE CMC SIDES WITH THE SLOWER GFS. A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS WILL BE USED FOR THE FORECAST. SW N ATLC... 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED JNEAR 31N70W AT 06Z WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE 0134 UTC ASCAT AND 2224 UTC WINDSAT PASSES SHOW 20-25 KT NELY WINDS OVER SE WATERS JUST N OF AN OLD BOUNDARY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SINK SLOWLY S SUN...THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS FARTHER SW AND COLLAPSES NEAR 26N74W MON AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS WILL REMAIN FRESH S OF 23N AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING MON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND ACROSS NW PORTIONS MON. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY LATE WED WHEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORT A FASTER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THAN THE 00Z GFS AND CMC. A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WILL BE USED FOR THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BERMUDA HIGH PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND N OF AN OLD BOUNDARY ALONG 17N IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS AT 8-11 FT AND 10-14 FT ACCORDING TO SHIPS 9HXD9 AND C6SE3 IN THE SW CARIB DOWNWIND OF COLOMBIAN WIND MAX NEAR 30 KT. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ARE CONFINED TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DUE TO WEAKENING HIGH AND PRES GRADIENT. A NARROW ZONE OF 20-25 KT NELY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE AS IT SINKS FARTHER S AND DISSIPATES. NWLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT REGIONAL ATLC WATERS AND MIX WITH NE WIND SWELL. FRESH FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW CARIB THROUGH WED MORNING..WHILE DECREASING ELSEWHERE...THEN DIMINISH ENTIRE AREA WED THROUGH THU. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER