000 AGXX40 KNHC 281944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST TUE DEC 28 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAD BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS THE GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION NOW ERODING AS THE WIND FLOW UNDERGOES CHANGES. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF ARE INDICATING DIMINISHING NW-NE WINDS...DOWN TO 5-10 KT IN THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS AND TO NE-E 10 TO 15 IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION. SEAS ARE ALSO ON THE DOWNWARD TREND WITH BUOYS SHOWING 2 FT OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...SE-S RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BOTH BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA SHOW SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT. SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DEPICTED SEAS 9 AND 10 FT IN THAT PART OF THE GULF. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 18 UTC DEPICTS HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER WESTERN ALABAMA S AND SE ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF AND TO OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK SE TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT...TO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING WED...AND TO E OF FLORIDA NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WED NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AND LOW PRES DEVELOPING W OF THE AREA THE INFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE FOR AN INCREASING TREND OF THESE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF BEGINNING ON TUE TO 20 TO 25 KT...AND THEN INCREASING OVER THE SW GULF WED AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING ON SAT AND SUN WITH APPROACH OF THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM IS STILL SET TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS FRI AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS AS LATEST RUN IS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN U.S. FRI THROUGH SUN WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULLING OFF TO THE N AND NE OF THE GULF ONCE IT PASSES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT ACROSS THE GULF. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FORECAST THE FRONT TO REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SAT...FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT...AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/APALACHEE BAY AREA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO N-NE AT 20-25 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 25-30 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST ON SUN. SEAS PER WAVEWATCH CONSENSUS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAXIMUM MOSTLY S OF 26N W OF 90W ALLOWED BY GIVEN FETCH AND DURATION. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COLD FRONT HAS QUICKLY PUSHED INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N72W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS OBSERVED ON A ASCAT PASS AND BY BUOY 42057 NEAR 17N82W ARE 20-25 KT WITH A POCKET OF NE 25-30 KT WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA TO 15N AND BETWEEN 68W-72W. OBSERVED SEA STATE OF 8-13 FT IS NOTED THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF 15N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ELSEWHERE FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND COLOMBIA AS NOTED EARLIER. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 AND 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 15N AND W OF 75W. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVES THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC THEN DISSIPATE FROM NEAR 20N55W TO 17N62W DURING WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE INTO THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THU...THEN STRENGTHEN FRI THROUGH SUN CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THROUGH SUN WITH NE WINDS OF 20 KT. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXITED THE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA. GALE WINDS NOTED BY BOTH ASCAT AND BUOY DATA THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BUOYS 41047 NEAR 27N72W IS NOW NW AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT IN COMBINED SEAS FROM A NW SWELL. THE RIDGE WILL EVOLVE INTO A HIGH CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WED THEN SLIDE E TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATE THU BEFORE MERGING WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES FROM THE N FRI AND SAT AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE HIGH THEN STRENGTHEN FRI THROUGH SAT CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS S OF 27N THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BUT COULD POSSIBLY REACH 30 KT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WAVEWATCH MODEL BUILDS SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELLS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE FAR W PORTION SUN...BUT BECOME S-SW AT 15 KT OVER THE NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS N FLORIDA AND TOWARDS THE COAST. VERY LARGE SEAS IN NW SWELLS WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT FRI AND TO 4-6 FT BY SUN AS ADVERTISED BY THE WAVEWATCH MODEL. HOWEVER...SEAS WITH REMAIN HIGHER OVER THE SE PORTION..POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT IN A NE SWELL. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE