000 AGXX40 KNHC 272003 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S AND SE UNDER VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION E OF ABOUT 89W WHILE SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE MOVING BACK N UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW W OF 89W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF ARE INDICATING DIMINISHING WINDS...DOWN TO 15 KT...ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FT S OF 26N...AND TOP 3 TO 5 FT N OF 26N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWED...AND ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING WINDS VEERING TO NE TO E AT 10-15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF WITH WINDS NOW SE TO S AT 15-20 KT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SW AND NW GULF ZONE. SEAS OVER THESE PORTIONS OF THE GULF ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT AND 2-4 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 18 UTC DEPICTS HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S FROM THE MIDWEST U.S. INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEMARCATION BETWEEN N WINDS E OF 89W AND SOUTHERLY WINDS W OF 89W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CENTERS LOCATED OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK SE TOWARDS THE SE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO OVER THE EASTERN WATERS BY SAT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND BEGINS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AND LOW PRES DEVELOPING W OF THE AREA THE INFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE FOR AN INCREASING TREND OF THESE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF BEGINNING ON TUE TO 20 TO 25 KT...AND THEN INCREASING OVER THE SW GULF WED AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE OVER THE NW GULF THU AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF LATE SAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE GULF MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE NW GULF LATE FRI...AND THEN REACHES FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT. LATEST RUNS OF THE NCEP MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF LATE FRI. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN U.S. FRI AND SAT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULLING OFF TO THE N OF THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GULF FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM HAITI TO CENTRAL PANAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS OBSERVED ON A ASCAT PASS AND BY BUOY 42057 NEAR 17N82W ARE 20 TO 25 KT. WITH OBSERVED SEASTATE OF 8-10 FT. ELSEWHERE FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND COLOMBIA AS NOTED EARLIER. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 15N AND W OF 75W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 14N75W BY EARLY TUE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN LATER ON TUE INTO EARLY WED MORNING WHILE ITS NORTHERN PORTION MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND REACHES THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS IT DISSIPATES FROM NEAR 20N55W TO 17N62W DURING WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE INTO THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC TUE THROUGH THU...THEN INTENSIFY FRI AND SAT CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS S OF 27N THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BUT COULD POSSIBLY REACH 30 KT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WAVEWATCH MODEL BUILDS SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELLS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA... WITH SEAS TO 8 FT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N65W SW TO HISPANIOLA ARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH ASCAT AND BUOY DATA FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED GALE FORCE WINDS E AND W OF THE COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 77W. BUOY 41010 NEAR 29N78W CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR SE PORTION EARLY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WATERS NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WED THROUGH THU...THEN BECOME A RIDGE OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS FRI AND SAT. VERY LARGE SEAS IN NW SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THU WITH SEAS ADVERTISED BY THE WAVEWATCH MODEL TO BE IN THE 14-25 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE WED THROUGH SAT...BUT LINGER UP TO 10 FT OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 26N W OF COLD FRONT TO 77W AND N OF 28N E OF COLD FRONT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE