000 AGXX40 KNHC 261955 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXITED THE AREA DURING THE MORNING PER LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE CLOUD IMAGERY. LARGE BLANKET OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS SEEN ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF INDICATING VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY. BUOYS FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF ALONG WITH A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA COASTS. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED MAX SEAS UP TO 17 FT JUST A SHORT WHILE AGO AT BUOY 42003 LOCATED NEAR 26N85W...AND TO 14 FT AT BUOY 42001 NEAR 26N90W...BUT ARE IN THE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TREND. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE NW TO N AT 20-25 KT EXCEPT FOR OVER THE WATERS W OF 93W WHERE DIRECTION IS NOW FROM THE N TO NE AT LESSER SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT. SEAS W OF 90W ARE IN THE RANGE OF 7 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT TO THE N OF 25N AND W OF 94W WHERE THEY HAVE SUBSIDED TO 3 TO 5 FT AND N OF 28N WHERE THEY ARE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 18 UTC DEPICTS HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDING SE ACROSS THE GULF. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SE TOWARDS THE NE GULF BY WED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS W OF ABOUT 94W WHERE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ALLOWING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO KICK UP AND SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY 10 FT ON WED. WINDS THEN DECREASE SOME THU GOING INTO FRI AS A RATHER LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MID-WEST AND TEXAS REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS BY MUCH OF THE MODEL THAT IT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TINNING OF APPROACH BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS MORE CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT TOWARDS THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH COLD FRONT N OW HAVING ADVANCED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED BY BUOY 42050 NEAR 20N85W AND 15-20 KT BY BOUT 42057 NEAR 17N82W. SEAS ARE BUILDING UP TO 10 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND COLOMBIA AS NOTED EARLIER. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR 17N85W BY MON MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON FROM 22N60W TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WED INTO FRI WHILE MOVING SE. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W SW TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED GALE FORCE WINDS E AND W OF THE COLD FRONT. BUOY 41010 NEAR 29N78W HAS BEEN SHOWING GUSTS TO GALE FORCE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THESE DATA HAD TO ADJUST GALE WARNING S TO 26N BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING NW WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST...BUT ONLY EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT THE PRESENT TIME. 12 UTC MODEL CYCLE...SIMILAR TO 00 UTC AND 06 UTC...IN AGREEING WITH FRONTAL POSITION TO NEAR 31N67W TO EASTERN CUBA BY MORNING...THEN TO THE FAR SE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE BEHIND FRONT N OF 26N AND E OF 75W TILL MON EVENING ...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 30 KT. VERY LARGE SEAS IN NW SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THU WITH SEAS ADVERTISED BY THE WAVEWATCH MODEL TO BE IN THE 20-25 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE WED THROUGH SAT...BUT LINGER UP TO 10 FT OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 26N W OF COLD FRONT AND N OF 28N E OF COLD FRONT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE