000 AGXX40 KNHC 261945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXITED THE AREA DURING THE MORNING PER LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE CLOUD IMAGERY. LARGE BLANKET OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS SEEN ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF INDICATING VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY. BUOYS FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF ALONG WITH A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA COASTS. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED MAX SEAS UP TO 17 FT JUST A SHORT WHILE AGO AT BUOY 42003 LOCATED NEAR 26N85W...AND TO 14 FT AT BUOY 42001 NEAR 26N90W...BUT ARE IN THE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TREND. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE NW TO N AT 20-25 KT EXCEPT FOR OVER THE WATERS W OF 93W WHERE DIRECTION IS NOW FROM THE N TO NE AT LESSER SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT. SEAS W OF 90W ARE IN THE RANGE OF 7 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT TO THE N OF 25N AND W OF 94W WHERE THEY HAVE SUBSIDED TO 3 TO 5 FT AND N OF 28N WHERE THEY ARE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 18 UTC DEPICTS HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDING SE ACROSS THE GULF. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SE TOWARDS THE NE GULF BY WED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS W OF ABOUT 94W WHERE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ALLOWING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO KICK UP AND SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY 10 FT ON WED. WINDS THEN DECREASE SOME THU GOING INTO FRI AS A RATHER LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MID-WEST AND TEXAS REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS BY MUCH OF THE MODEL THAT IT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TINNING OF APPROACH BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. WILL WAIT IN NEXT FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS MORE CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT TOWARDS THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH COLD FRNT N OW HAVING ADVANCED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED BY BUOY 42050 NEAR 20N85W AND 15-20 KT BY BOUT 42057 NEAR 17N82W. SEAS ARE BUILDING UP TO 10 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND COLOMBIA AS NOTED EARLIER. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE REMAIDNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR 17N85W BY MON MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON FROM 22N60W TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WED INTO FRI WHILE MOVING SE. WINDS AHEAS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE INTENSIFIED AS THEY FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSAGES...WITH THE GFS SHOWING WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND OFF THE SE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY SUNSET TUE AND OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF CARRIES A SOLID AREA OF 25 KT WINDS. GIVEN THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALY FAVORED LOCATION FOR WINDS TO BE ENHANCED...THE FORECAST HEDGES TOWARD THE STRONGER GFS HERE. SW N ATLC... SW WINDS AT BUOY 41012 NEAR 30N80.5W HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP TO 31 KT AT 0600Z AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH N FLORIDA. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. IRONICALLY...THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH THE WINDS AT THIS BUOY LOCATION WHERE IT CARRIES 40 KT WINDS AT 0600 UTC. THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BUOY. THESE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE EXPANSE OF THE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE SHOWING WINDS REACHING 40 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON NIGHT BUT THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPANDED FARTHER W OF THE FRONT ON THE NEXT HSFAT2 ISSUANCE AS THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CARRYING STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT HELPS CONTINUE THE GALE W OF THE FRONT LONGER. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 27N WITHIN 210 NM OF FRONT SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING N OF 27N E OF 91W...GMZ080. .GALE WARNING N OF 27N...GMZ084. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER