000 AGXX40 KNHC 250730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. BUOY REPORTS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS INDICATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE 25-30 KT. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 30N96W IS FORECAST TO MOVE W AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURN NE INTO THE ATLC. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST. BOTH MODELS KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. RELIED PRIMARILY ON THE MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE BUT ATTEMPTED TO CORRECT FOR A BIAS IN THE MWW3 TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER SEAS TOO LONG AFTER THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ASCAT DATA AT 0236 UTC SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA E OF 81W AND N OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA. THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT E TODAY...MAKING FOR A LONGER FETCH AND MORE WIDESPREAD 7-8 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. N SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN WITH N WINDS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO PUSH S THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE WINDS WEAKEN OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY FUNNEL THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND OFF THE SE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TUE EVENING. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL PUSH S OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY SUN AS A DEVELOPING LOW RACES UP THE ATLC COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT SUN THROUGH MON MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SE CONUS. 25-30 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST N OF 26N BEHIND THE FRONT TUE THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT. WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 20-25 FT IN NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ZONE MON AND MON NIGHT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 27N WITHIN 210 NM OF FRONT SUN THROUGH EARLY MON...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL