000 AGXX40 KNHC 191944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FRONT HAS BECOME ILL DEFINED SINCE YDA EVENING...WITH OLD CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW THAT WAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVED E INTO W FLORIDA YDA NOW BEING DESCRIBED AS THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...NW TO N WINDS 15-20 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN...WHILE RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS NW PORTIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH HIGH BUILDING IN AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENING TO 20 KT W OF 94W. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE IN BACKDOOR MANNER FROM THE NE WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND MOVE S-SW ACROSS THE E GULF BEFORE DISSIPATING THU...WITH NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING SE OFF THE TEXAS AND LA COASTS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH NW FLOW 20-25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND IT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE VERIFIED BEST WITH THIS COMPLEX PATTERN TODAY AS PORTION OF THE LLVL VORT ENERGY THAT MOVED ACROSS E CUBA YDA HAS EVOLVED INTO THE DEVELOPING GALE CENTER NEAR 26N72.5W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING S THEN SW TO NEAR JAMAICA. SEVERAL SHIP OBS THIS MORNING SHOWED 25-40 KT INVOF THE LOW WITH THE 40 KT OBS LIKELY TOO HIGH...BUT HAVE FORECAST WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE BY 18Z...OR NOW ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE. COLD FRONT IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO DEFINE PRECISELY ATTM BUT STILL LINGERS BACK TO THE NW SEVERAL DEGREES AND HAS BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE GULF AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN. LOW AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ENTIRELY LATE MON MORNING. W TO SW WINDS IN S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW LIKELY KICKING UP SEAS TO 10 FT ATTM...WITH BAHAMAS HAVING LIMITED FETCH LENGTH THUS FAR...AND SEAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BANK AND W OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE LIKELY BUILT 6 TO 8 FT IN NW TO W WIND WAVE. NWLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT TO 20-25 KT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL BUILD SEAS 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL...WITH SOME OF THIS ENERGY SPILLING W OF THE BAHAMAS PAST S FLORIDA. SLY GALES WILL EXPAND THIS EVENING FROM SE OF THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH AND BUILD SEAS TO 9 TO 15 FT OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING NE OUT OF THE AREA. AS INDICATED YDA...THE PARENT LOW OF THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BOMB OUT ACROSS THE NW ATLC NEXT FE DAYS AND YIELD WLY GALES ACROSS N PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS 00Z TUE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT E OUT OF THE AREA BUT WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS AREA THROUGH 00Z THU. HUGE SEAS WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS THIS REGION TO 30 FT AND HIGHER JUST TO OUR NE...AND 15 TO 25 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS NE PORTIONS. FRONT WILL SWEEP SE OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH A NEXT MORE ZONAL BOUNDARY SINKING TO NEAR 30N WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC HAS PUSHED SE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHILE A WEAK SHEAR LINE STILL EXISTS FROM OFF OF COLOMBIA N-NE TO NEAR THIS TROUGH E OF JAMAICA. NWLY FLOW IS SPILLING INTO THE NW CARIB AND WILL DOMINATE W OF THE SHEAR LINE THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND ENHANCE FLOW...BECOMING N TO NE 10-20 ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE BASIN...THEN BECOMING NE 15-20 WITH LOCALIZED AREAS TO 25 KT TUE. REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTEND W INTO SE CARIB ALONG ABOUT 13.5N WITH 15-20 KT N OF THIS OLD SHEAR LINE. NELY LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH ELY WIND WAVES AND SMALL NW SWELL. WWIII STILL TOO HIGH BY ABOUT 2-3 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRONT AND TROUGH TO PUSH SE INTO N PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THEM NEXT FEW DAYS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING