000 AGXX40 KNHC 171927 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK COLD FRONT STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE NEXT S/W CURRENTLY MOVING INTO TEXAS PROVIDES SUPPORT TO PUSH BOUNDARY SE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BACKED OFF PAST 12 HOURS...WITH PEAK WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH SEAS IN THESE AREAS 5-6 FT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE SW TO TAMPICO SAT MORNING THEN EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO TUXPAN MEXICO BY SAT EVENING...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE S GULF FROM NEAR NAPLES TO JUST S OF TUXPAN SUN MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SINKING BOUNDARY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL ZONES AT 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW ALONG THE FRONT SAT THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND HAVE TRENDED A UKMET-ECMWF BLEND. THUS A WEAK TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN...WITH FRONT CLEARING THE BASIN SUN AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT BEHIND IT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND VEER ELSEWHERE. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH 20 KT EARLY TUE ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 17.5N55W SW ACROSS THE NRN WINDWARDS THEN ARCHES W ALONG 14N THEN NW TO A LLVL VORT SE OF JAMAICA...WHERE IT ALSO HAS MERGED WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIB. NE TO E FLOW 25-30 KT WAS DEPICTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND A FEW SHIP OBS DOWNSTREAM OF THE MONA PASSAGE AND CONTINUING S OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS HERE LIKELY AOA 11 FT. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WAS CENTERED DUE N OF THIS AREA NEAR 26N AND WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG GRADIENT HERE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING E AND WEAKENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE CONFLUENT ZONE ALONG AND N OF THE SHEAR AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SPREAD NW ACROSS JAMAICA AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LOSE ITS CONFLUENCE LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OCCURRING WITHIN THE CARIB AND E OF THE LEEWARDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THE ATLC HIGH SHIFT E OF 55W...LEAVING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASING TREND IN WIND AND SEAS BY SUN NIGHT. A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD N SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE REGIONAL ATLC WATERS AND IS KEEPING SEAS IN AND THROUGH THE PASSAGE AT 7-9 FT. SWELL AND COMBINED SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGIONAL ATLC BY SAT EVENING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A 1021 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR 26N67W RIDGING W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY TURNED W TO SW ACROSS NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHILE FRESH NE TO E TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS S PORTIONS S OF 22N. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT E OF 64W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW FOR JUST SLIGHT VEERING OF THE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA-GA COASTS SAT EVENING. STILL PREFER THE UKMET-ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE WEAK LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF E-NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INDUCING STRONG SLY FLOW TO NEAR 30 KT E OF THE BAHAMAS TO 30N AND BEYOND SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WE HAD PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED POTENTIAL FOR SLY GALES DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MODELS...IN SPECIFIC GFS...HAD BACKED OFF ON THIS DUE TO THE ORIENTATION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW IT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE EURO MODELS SUGGESTING A SIZABLE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS IN THIS SLY FLOW AND THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLY GALES EARLY SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT ACROSS E AND NE PORTIONS. STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DO NOT BUILD INTO NW PORTIONS UNTIL MON MORNING AND MAINLY N OF 29-30N. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE STRAITS AND NW CUBA AND TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY MON MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY THEN ARRIVING IN THE EXTREME NW BAHAMAS. LARGE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NE U.S. COAST WILL PUSH THIS BOUNDARY E-SE MON AND TUE AND EXIT THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING