000 AGXX40 KNHC 151910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOYS OVER THE NW GULF ARE SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WITH SEAS ALREADY UP TO 10 FT OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE ENHANCED FLOW IS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1023 MB HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 995 MB LOW PRES MOVING E THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST...AND THE LOW PRES LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THU...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRES THROUGH S TEXAS. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THU...PROVIDING A REINVIGORATED SHOT TO THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON FRI...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE FRI WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING FORMATION OF A LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE FRI...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OVER THE AREA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NE TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SAT. THE FRONT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM BY SUN...AND SAG SE OF THE GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN GULF FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBSIDING SUN INTO MON. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E ON MON...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO 15N73W...THEN CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE CENTRAL COLOMBIAN COAST. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 15Z ALONG WITH RECENT BUOYS OBSERVATIONS SHOW 15 TO 20 KT N FLOW W OF THE SHEAR LINE TO ABOUT 83W...S OF 20N. A SHIP REPORTED NE WINDS TO 25 KT AS WELL IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE FRESH TRADES S OF HIGH PRES OVER FLORIDA ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE PASS. SHIPS ARE REPORTING N SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT NEAR THE PANAMANIAN COAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES OVER FLORIDA SHIFTS E. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW ENHANCED NE TRADES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE N SWELL WILL SUBSIDE OFF PANAMA THROUGH THU. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE S OF HISPANIOLA BY FRI...WHERE THE ENHANCED TRADES WILL BE ACTIVE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY EARLY MON...FOLLOWED BY FRESH N FLOW. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... AN ASCAT PASS FROM 15Z ALONG WITH A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. NW FLOW HAS DIMINISHED ELSEWHERE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SE OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT. RECENT BUOY REPORTS AND A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM 11Z SHOW NW SWELL OF 9 TO 15 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES OVER N FLORIDA WILL BUILD E THROUGH THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TRADES S OF 23N AND SW WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST. THE FRESH SW WINDS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD...N OF 29N THROUGH FRI AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N OF THE AREA. NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRI AS WELL. MEANWHILE LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE FRI ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER A BROAD AREA N OF 24N BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 12 GFS CONTINUES THE TREND...SHOWING THESE SW WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE N OF 28N E OF 75W BY EARLY SUN. THE LATEST ECMWF IS WEAKER HOWEVER...SHOWING WINDS TO ONLY 30 KT. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...BUT GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THESE BELOW GALE STRENGTH THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT SWEEPS E OF 65W. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N E OF FRONT LATE SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN