000 AGXX40 KNHC 150646 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGING CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NE TO THE SW GULF WATERS. RESIDUAL 20 KT NE WINDS EXIST NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS INDICATED BY A 0248 UTC ASCAT PASS WITH A 0245 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING 8 FT SEAS IN THAT SAME AREA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER THIS MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED 20-25 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE NW GULF ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE E TO W ORIENTED ALONG 25-26N BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO EXPAND TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A LENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FETCH IN THE W GULF WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT BY LATE WED NIGHT. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THU ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE RELAXES A BIT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI MORNING REACHING FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF FRI NIGHT. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT THEN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE-E OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AFTERNOON PUSHING E-SE OF THE GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT. NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT SUN AS RIDGING RETURNS OVER THE GULF SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM E PUERTO RICO SW TO NEAR 16N72W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. A 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE AXIS. A 0145 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED 13 FT SEAS JUST N OF CENTRAL PANAMA. MEANWHILE VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS EXIST E OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT DISSIPATING EARLY THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N-NE OF THE AREA RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SAT WHILE E-SE 10 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO HONDURAS SAT NIGHT THEN FROM E CUBA TO E PANAMA SUN MORNING AND THEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NW COLOMBIA SUN EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH NW-N 10-15 KT WINDS BEHIND IT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EASTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXIST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH IS IN THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR 22N63W TO E PUERTO RICO. A 0106 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM NDBC BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO HAVE BEEN REPORTING 10-12 FT SEAS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E EXTENDING FROM NEAR 22N58W TO GUADELOUPE TONIGHT THEN E OF THE AREA BY THU EVENING. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS NW OF THE WATERS WITH 15-20 KT TRADES OCCURRING THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND 8-11 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW E OF 65W EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N55W T0 NEAR 20N65W WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. 0106 UTC AND 0248 UTC ASCAT PASSES INDICATED W-NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT REMAINING OVER THE WATERS N OF 26N WITH 15-20 KT S OF THERE. LARGE NW SWELL ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH A RECENT SHIP REPORT NEAR 30N68W OBSERVING 17 FT SEAS AND A 0145 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING 20 FT SEAS NEAR 31N69W. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SLIDES E FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS. A RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG 27-28N THU WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE NW PORTION AND NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS SETTING UP JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE SEAS WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 10 FT BY THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO 30 PERCENT. WILL CONTINUE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N E OF FRONT LATE SAT AND SUN HEADLINE FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA BY 06 UTC SUN THEN FROM NEAR 31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN AFTERNOON. 20-30 KT W-NW WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N E OF FRONT LATE SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY