000 AGXX40 KNHC 141923 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ASCAT AND BUOY DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING STILL SHOWED N WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY. LATEST BUOY DATA SHOW THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS SE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY SETTING UP IN THE NW GULF ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRES. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE STARTING TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MAINLY THE NW GULF ON WED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES SYSTEMS. THIS FLOW DIMINISHES SLIGHTLY BUT SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E. MEANWHILE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH TEXAS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STALLING COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES TO PUSH SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN PHASE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING THE FRONTAL POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO FAR SW GULF NEAR VERACRUZ CITY BY SAT MORNING...AND CLEARING THE GULF BY SUN MORNING. STRONG N FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO WESTERN COLOMBIA. BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA SHOW HAVE BEEN SHOWING STRONG N WINDS W OF THE SHEAR LINE...WITH SHIP REPORTS INDICATING UP TO 30 KT THIS MORNING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. GIVEN THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF THE N WINDS...SEAS TO AT LEAST 12 FT ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PANAMANIAN COAST. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EAST. AS THESE WINDS ABATE...NE WINDS THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES WILL INCREASE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL. FURTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS...AND STALL FROM 22N57W TO 18N62W BY THU MORNING. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE BEHIND THE FRONT...FRESH SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL PUSH S TO AROUND 17N THROUGH THU. BY FRI...BUILDING HIGH PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC WATERS...PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E SUN...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A 1126Z WINDSAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY REPORTS NEAR 32N70W INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS WERE ONGOING EARLIER THIS MORNING N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. A 1352Z ASCAT PASS FURTHER EAST HINTED OF WINDS TO 35 KT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SWATH NEAR 31N...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 30 KT ELSEWHERE N OF 29N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW PRES N OF THE AREA LIFTS OUT. BUOYS ALSO HINT OF SEAS IN EXCESS OF 20 FT IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. SHIPS INDICATE N SWELL GREATER THAN 9 FT AS FAR S AS THE DOMINICAN COAST...E OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH FRESH TRADES PERSISTING S OF THE HIGH PRES S OF 22N S OF THE RIDGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS BY LATE SAT OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N...WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT...AND WITH THE NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT AIDED BY RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN