000 AGXX40 KNHC 120702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SE OF TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND INTO THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM FAR SE LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AS OF 06 UTC. A TIMELY ASCAT PASS INDICATED SOLID 30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF EARLY THIS MORNING BUT DO NOT THINK THAT THEY WILL BE PROLONGED OR FREQUENT ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A GALE WARNING W OF 90W. A GALE WARNING IS HOWEVER IN EFFECT FOR N OF 25N E OF 90W BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING AT 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 18 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND E GULF DURING THE GALES. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO 25N90W TO 21N97W AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON RAPIDLY PUSHING SE OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MON AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW. WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE W GULF BY MON AFTERNOON THEN THE E GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM THE NE TO SW GULF TUE THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE W GULF INCREASING TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW HAITI TO 15N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 09N81W. A 0206 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT W OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND S OF 16N WITH 10-15 KT NE-E FLOW N OF 16N AND W OF THE SHEAR AXIS. NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE SHEAR AXIS...EXCEPT N-NE 15-20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SHEAR AXIS WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STRETCHING FROM NEAR WESTERN CUBA TO NEAR CANCUN MEXICO JUST AFTER SUNSET THEN FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS MON MORNING AND THEN FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW COLOMBIA TUE MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR AXIS WED AND THU. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS TO UP TO 14 FT ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST. ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL FIRST ARRIVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY WITH NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THAT FEATURE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE MODERATE TRADES WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH WED. NE-E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE LEE OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AS THEY GET FUNNELED THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES BEHIND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NW SWELL UP TO 13 FT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT WED SUBSIDING TO 10 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NEAR 30N54W TO 25N61W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A 0028 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE-S 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N TO 27N ALONG WITHIN NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 27N AND NW OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH E OF THE WATERS LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N61W TO 25N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A 0210 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF THE BOUNDARY AND E OF 75W. THE SHEAR AXIS WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE N OF 27N W OF 76W BY 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY 06 UTC MON THEN FROM NEAR 31N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON AFTERNOON AND THEN FROM NEAR 31N61W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUE AFTERNOON PUSHING E OF 55W WED NIGHT. W-NW WINDS OF 25-35 KT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 00 UTC MON. 30-35 KT GALES WILL EXPAND TO N OF 25N W OF THE FRONT BY 00 UTC TUE AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A TROUGH PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP 25 FT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEGINNING OVER THE W WATERS AND EXPANDING E WED AND THU AS HIGH PRES SETTLES DOWN OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE WATERS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SE TO 22N55W BY THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE NW CORNER LATE THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT. .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 27N W OF FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING GMZ084-086 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY