000 AGXX40 KNHC 100640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING DOWN FROM 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA. 15 TO 20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE W GULF WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND 10 TO 15 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE E GULF EXCEPT FOR 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SE GULF AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF WATERS SAT AFTERNOON PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT EVENING REACHING FROM THE SE TIP OF LOUISIANA TO NEAR 25N97W LATE SAT NIGHT THEN FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO 25N90W TO 21N97W SUN MORNING THEN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN EVENING AND FINALLY SE OF THE GULF WATERS SUN NIGHT. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. THE LATEST SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE NOW LESS THAN 10 PERCENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 34 KT PROBABILITIES ALSO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THUS HAVE REMOVED GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WORDING WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE ALTHOUGH WILL STILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT IN CASE MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES STRONGER. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH STARTING IN THE W GULF SUN NIGHT WITH THE ENTIRE GULF DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY THEN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF WATERS TUE INCREASING TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED JUST S OF CENTRAL CUBA WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NE NICARAGUA. A RECENT 0250 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NW TO N 20 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REPORTED 25 KT WINDS. EXPECT THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE 1008 MB LOW PRES REMAINS PARKED NEAR THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N OF THE LOW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 0248 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT W OF THE TROUGH AND A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION NEAR THE PANAMA CANAL REPORTED 25 KT N WINDS. EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FETCH HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE N COAST OF PANAMA AND NW COLOMBIA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WHICH IS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THERE. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT EVENTUALLY PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST TO OVER COLOMBIA SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS SAT AND SUN. MEANWHILE EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY DIMINISHING TO MODERATE SAT THROUGH MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON MORNING THEN FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO EASTERN PANAMA BY TUE MORNING AND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 TO 12 FT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG WINDS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WERE INDICATED BY A 0106 UTC ASCAT PASS WITH 10 TO 12 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL AS REPORTED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FT BY THEN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FROM SUN THROUGH MON WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE WATERS TUE WITH NW SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUE NIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH SEVERAL FRONTS AND TROUGHS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT HAS DECAYED INTO A TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NEAR 31N80W TO 29N79W THEN TURNING SE TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. A 0252 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT W OF THIS FEATURE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WATERS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ALSO EXIST W OF THIS FRONTAL TROUGH. FRESH E TO SE WINDS EXIST SE OF THIS FRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT THE COASTAL TROUGH TO LINGER E OF FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING NE TO E. MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY LIFTING NE OF THE AREA BY SUN MORNING. THE ECMWF INDICATES GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED CLOSER TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BY SAT AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT E OF THE FRONT AND THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS N OF 27N AND E OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THAT SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST SREF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES NEAR 0 PERCENT E OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES HOWEVER CONTINUE TO AGREE ON GALE CONDITIONS ARRIVING IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES N OF 27N AND W OF THE FRONT COMMENCING SUN AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH TUE AS REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR ARRIVE BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. THE MAIN AND INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NEAR 31N79W TO THE SPACE COAST OF FLORIDA SUN AFTERNOON THEN FROM NEAR 31N69W TO EASTERN CUBA MON MORNING THEN FROM NEAR 31N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY TUE MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE INTO THE AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 25 FT BY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N W OF COLD FRONT SUN THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY