000
AGXX40 KNHC 091859
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EST THU DEC 09 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EVIDENT FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF
A LOW MOVING S OF CUBA IN AN AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. 
ELSEWHERE N TO NE WINDS NW OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN
HIGH PRES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LOW PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN. A 
RIDGE WILL EXTEND SE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH 
FRI NIGHT...THEN SHIFT E SAT AND SUN AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES 
OFF THE NW GULF COAST SAT NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 
GALE FORCE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF SUN WITH 
SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. THE 
FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE GULF SUN NIGHT. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE 
BUILDS SEAS TO 16 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE SECTION OF THE 
MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF SUN AND MON. SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MON.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...
SAT IMAGERY AND SCAT DATA SHOW A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING S OF 
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO HONDURAS.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE AND WEAKEN 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BECOMING DIFFUSE BY FRI NIGHT. A 1009 MB 
LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 10N78W. SURFACE AND SHIP OBS 
PAST 6-12 HOURS SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT W OF THE LOW CENTER. THE 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY 
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

SW N ATLC W OF 65W...
REMNANT FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. 
SHIP OBS AND SCAT DATA SHOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE 
20 KT OR LESS. WINDS ARE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR 
30N60W. THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN FORMING
A LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N68W ON FRI...WHILE THE GFS HAS A 
MUCH WEAKER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE TOWARD THE GFS AND 
WW3 MODEL FORECASTS FOR NOW...BUT A CHANGE IN FCST PHILOSOPHY MAY
BE REQUIRED IN THIS AREA TONIGHT OR FRI. EXPECT TIGHTENING PRES 
GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW 20-25 KT NE WINDS TO DEVELOP N OF 24N  
W OF THE TROUGH AROUND 72W TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT 
AND VEER SE THEN S-SW AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT AND 
MON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST INTO THE 
NW WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ALONG 
WITH LARGE NW SWELL BUILDING SEAS TO 19-20 FT N OF 29N MON.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N ON EITHER SIDE OF 
FRONT SUN AND N OF 27N E OF FRONT MON.


CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N SUN.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL