000 AGXX40 KNHC 090730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST THU DEC 09 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. WINDS ARE N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT E OF 87W AND SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT W OF 87W ACCORDING TO BUOY REPORTS THROUGHOUT. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 6-9 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF TO 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-2 FT N OF ABOUT 28N. EXPECT THE CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE MORNING. WINDS IN THE NW PORTION WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT TODAY AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 25N87W WITH A COLD FRONT SW TO INLAND THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A WITH A WARM FRONT NE TO 25N85W AND SE TO THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RATHER VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM IS ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NE GULF SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SE REACHING NEAR W CUBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTED TO GALE FORCE YESTERDAY OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF...BUT LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT EXCEPT NOW DIMINISHING TO N-NE 15 KT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEAS OF 9-14 FT OVER THE SW GULF...WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GULF 27N W OF 88W AND 6 TO 9 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 28N W OF 85W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT E OF 85W. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE THROUGH SE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND SE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN SHIFT E THROUGH SUN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE NW GULF COAST LATE SAT. N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTED TO GALE FORCE YESTERDAY OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF...BUT LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT EXCEPT NOW DIMINISHING TO N-NE 15 KT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION OF ARCTIC ORIGIN. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATE SUN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO 16 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE SECTION OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF SUN INTO MON. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT THESE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 18N AND IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A LOW PRES TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A 1009 MB LOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH NEAR 10N78W. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THU THROUGH SUN WHILE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY INTO MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY THU...BUT DIMINISH LATE FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 10 FT MAX SEAS IN THE FAR SW WATERS BUILD SLIGHTER HIGHER BY LATE THU INTO FRI...THEN DIMINISH TO 8 FT SAT AND TO 5 FT SUN AND MON. THESE VALUES STILL LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN LARGE FETCH AREA AND LONG DURATION OF THE N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS...AND SO WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE. BUOYS N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC INDICATE THAT A SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE SAT THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N65W SW TO NEAR 21N68W EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT...WHILE WEAKENING...WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY SAT UNDER UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT FRONT LEADING A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRES THEN RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS AS IT NEARS THE STATIONARY FRONT. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MERGED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRI THEN QUICKLY MOVES NE AS TO E OF THE AREA SAT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TILTS S OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SAT INTO MON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT TO THE N OF 24N AND OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 74W BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND LASTING TO LATE FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING TO NE 15-20 KT LATE SAT AND FURTHER ON SUN TO 10-15 KT AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER TO THE NE OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD. CURRENT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 27N WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU NIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO E 10-15 KT AND TO E-SE E OF THE BAHAMAS ON SUN. ELSEWHERE WINDS VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 15-20 EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN AND FAR NW PORTION WHERE WINDS SHARPLY INCREASING TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE FROM THE S AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST INTO THE NW WATERS POSSIBLY DURING SUN AFTERNOON. N SWELLS OF UP TO 11 FT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 9 FT BY FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE