000 AGXX40 KNHC 081821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 PM EST WED DEC 8 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRES DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED PLATFORMS NW OF LOW CENTER REPORTING 30-40 KT THIS MORNING BUT BELIEVE SURFACE WINDS ARE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. STILL EXPECT THE LOW TO RACE SE LOSING IDENTITY NEAR W CUBA THU EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW SHOULD MOVE INLAND YUCATAN AREA OF MEXICO BY SUNSET THU. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE WARM FRONT SEGMENT EXTENDING TO THE E OF THE LOW IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE AND IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO EXTEND E OF LOW AS THE LOW RACES SE RESULTING IN NEXT FEW SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A WARM FRONT MOVING E AND SE. SO PLAN TO START ANOTHER DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING E TO OVER NW CUBA ON THE 18Z ANALYSIS. FURTHER E...THE GFS AND ECM HAVING DIFFICULTY OVER THE WATERS E OF N FL...AND CANT HELP BUT THINK THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO WORK WITH AN EASTERN EXTENSION OF THIS WARM FRONT OR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PARENT SHORTWAVE TO THE N. IN ANY EVENT...THIS WILL ALL BE OVER THU NIGHT AS A NE-SW RIDGE SETS UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI VEERING WINDS TO THE S...AND ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE FRI NIGHT. THESE SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WELL AHEAD...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT JUST AHEAD...OF NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF TX COAST SAT EVENING. GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON SUGGESTING MINIMAL POST FRONTAL GALE BEGINNING SUN MORNING BUT STILL HINTS AT A GALE OVER THE E GULF ZONE SUN. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD TROUGH...OR SHEAR AXIS...CONTINUES SW FROM HISPANIOLA TO A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING NEAR PANAMA. AS AN ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W IT WILL PUSH THIS TROUGH W WITH THE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED N TO S ALONG ROUGHLY ALONG 75W THU...77W FRI...77W SAT AND ALONG 78W-79W SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT WITH POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES REINFORCING THE NLY FLOW W OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE ELY FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN REACHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA SUN NIGHT AND FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA MON. TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 55W-65W... FRONTAL TROUGH STILL EVIDENT W OF THE AREA NE OF HISPANIOLA. AS NLY SURGES MOVE E ACROSS THE ATLC THEY WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL TROUGH BACK E OVER THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH THE NEXT SUCH EVENT OCCURRING FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. TILL THEN THE ATLC RIDGE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL TROUGH W OF AREA AND INCREASE THE ELY FLOW TO 20 KT ADVECTING MIXED NW AND NE SWELL INTO THE AREA. THE EVENT REPEATS AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND THE RIDGE BUILDS W. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N57W TO HISPANIOLA WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRI THEN MOVE E AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT BEFORE STALLING SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL LEAVE A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE NE FL COAST THU AND FRI WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING NE AS THE SLY FLOW INCREASES SAT NIGHT AND SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. EXPECT THE SLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE E OF FRONT SUN AND W FRONT SUN NIGHT OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF 70W. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. .AMZ080...GALE CONDS EXPECTED N OF 27N W OF 70W EITHER SIDE OF FRONT SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GMZ086...GALE CONDS EXPECTED N OF 27N SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON