000 AGXX40 KNHC 080915 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 415 AM EST WED DEC 08 2010 UPDATED WARNING SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. WINDS ARE N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT E OF 87W AND SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT W OF 87W ACCORDING TO BUOY REPORTS THROUGHOUT. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 6-9 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF TO 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-2 FT N OF ABOUT 28N. EXPECT THE CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE MORNING. WINDS IN THE NW PORTION WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT TODAY AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MODELS RUNS INCLUDING THE REGIONAL NAM STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DRAG ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE SE GULF TONIGHT AND THU. MODEL WIND GUIDANCE ALSO IN MORE AGREEMENT THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND NW OF THE LOW WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 20-30 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF TONIGHT AND THU BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT DURING THU AND TO 5 FT FRI. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA LATE THU BUT APPEAR TO WASH OUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S AND SE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. NEXT COLD FRONT APPEARS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE LATE SAT ...AND QUICKLY REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY SUN...THEN MOVES SE OF THE GULF LATE SUN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING UP TO 15 FT IN THE EASTERN GULF SUN. WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN AS VERY COLD AIR FILTERS IN PRONGED NW FLOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL SECTION WHERE A MINIMAL ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A LOW PRES TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A 1009 MB LOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH NEAR 10N78W. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THU THROUGH SUN. HIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY THU...BUT DIMINISH LATE FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 10 FT MAX SEAS IN THE FAR SW WATERS BUILD SLIGHTER HIGHER BY LATE THU INTO FRI...THEN DIMINISH TO 8 FT SAT AND TO 5 FT SUN. THE LARGE SEAS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN LARGE FETCH AREA AND LONG DURATION OF THE N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS. BUOYS N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC INDICATE THAT A BATCH OF N SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT WILL SURGE S INTO THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATER TODAY...AND TO REMAINDER OF THOSE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT BY WED YET ANOTHER SURGE OF SWELLS FROM THE NE WILL MIX WITH THE N SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS UP TO 11 FT TO INVADE MOST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND FRI PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W SW TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT...WHILE WEAKENING...WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY SAT UNDER UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT FRONT LEADING A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRES THEN RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS AS IT NEARS THE STATIONARY FRONT. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MERGED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRI THEN QUICKLY MOVES NE AS TO E OF THE AREA SAT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TILTS S OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SAT INTO SUN AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT TO THE N OF 24N AND OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 74W BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND LASTING TO LATE FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING TO NE 15-20 KT LATE SAT AND FURTHER ON SUN TO 10-15 KT AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER TO THE NE OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD. CURRENT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 27N WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU NIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO E 10-15 KT AND TO E-SE E OF THE BAHAMAS ON SUN. ELSEWHERE WINDS VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 15-20 EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN AND FAR NW PORTION WHERE WINDS SHARPLY INCREASING TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE FROM THE S AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST INTO THE NW WATERS POSSIBLY DURING SUN AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM BUOY 41048 AT 32N69.5W IS REPORTING COMBINED SEAS OF 16 FT IN NW SWELLS. EXPECT THESE LARGE SWELLS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 FT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. N SWELLS OF UP TO 11 FT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 9 FT BY FRI. WARNINGS...UPDATED ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE