000 AGXX40 KNHC 080730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST WED DEC 08 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. WINDS ARE N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT E OF 87W AND SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT W OF 87W ACCORDING TO BUOY REPORTS THROUGHOUT. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 6-9 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF TO 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-2 FT N OF ABOUT 28N. EXPECT THE CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE MORNING. WINDS IN THE NW PORTION WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT TODAY AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE RESIDUAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 21N96W MOVING S. LATEST MODELS RUNS ALONG WITH THOSE FROM 12-18 HOURS AGO ARE IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN HOLDING ON TO THIS LOW OR ANOTHER FORMING IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE PRESENT ONE...OR PERHAPS FURTHER TO THE N OF IT. MODELS INCLUDING THE REGIONAL NAM STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE WEAKER OF THE SOLNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN FROM THE EASTERN GULF S THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAGGED BY THE LOW AS IT MOVES SE. MODEL WIND GUIDANCE ALSO IN MORE AGREEMENT THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND NW OF THE LOW WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT DURING THU. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA LATE THU BUT APPEARS TO WASH OUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S AND SE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL SECTION WHERE A MINIMAL ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A LOW PRES TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A 1009 MB LOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH NEAR 10N78W. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THU THROUGH SUN. HIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY THU...BUT DIMINISH LATE FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 10 FT MAX SEAS IN THE FAR SW WATERS BUILD SLIGHTER HIGHER BY LATE THU INTO FRI...THEN DIMINISH TO 8 FT SAT AND TO 5 FT SUN. THE LARGE SEAS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN LARGE FETCH AREA AND LONG DURATION OF THE N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS. BUOYS N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC INDICATE THAT A BATCH OF N SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT WILL SURGE S INTO THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATER TODAY...AND TO REMAINDER OF THOSE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT BY WED YET ANOTHER SURGE OF SWELLS FROM THE NE WILL MIX WITH THE N SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS UP TO 11 FT TO INVADE MOST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND FRI PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W SW TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT...WHILE WEAKENING...WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY SAT UNDER UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT FRONT LEADING A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRES THEN RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS AS IT NEARS THE STATIONARY FRONT. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MERGED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRI THEN QUICKLY MOVES NE AS TO E OF THE AREA SAT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TILTS S OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SAT INTO SUN AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT TO THE N OF 24N AND OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 74W BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND LASTING TO LATE FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING TO NE 15-20 KT LATE SAT AND FURTHER ON SUN TO 10-15 KT AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER TO THE NE OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD. CURRENT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 27N WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU NIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO E 10-15 KT AND TO E-SE E OF THE BAHAMAS ON SUN. ELSEWHERE WINDS VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 15-20 EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN AND FAR NW PORTION WHERE WINDS SHARPLY INCREASING TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE FROM THE S AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST INTO THE NW WATERS POSSIBLY DURING SUN AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM BUOY 41048 AT 32N69.5W IS REPORTING COMBINED SEAS OF 16 FT IN NW SWELLS. EXPECT THESE LARGE SWELLS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 FT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. N SWELLS OF UP TO 11 FT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 9 FT BY FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GMZ084 AND GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE