000 AGXX40 KNHC 071715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1215 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF HAS BECOME VERY BROAD AND DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE AS A PORTION CONTINUES NW AND WELL INLAND OVER N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. A COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY FORMING ALONG THE NE TX COAST...USING 1 AND 2 MB ANALYSIS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE E OFFSHORE THE TX COAST EARLY TONIGHT AND SET UP THE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS GOOD AS A MID TO UPPER IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY RACING SE ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND EXPECT IT TO BE THE KICK OFF MECHANISM. THE ARRAY OF GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT WITH ONLY THE GFS SUGGESTING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS. AS UPPER IMPULSE IS RACING SE WILL FORECAST MAX WINDS TO INCREASE TO ONLY 30 KT NW OF SURFACE LOW LATE WED. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG THE FRONTAL REMNANTS SE AS A NEW COLD FRONT WHILE A WARM FRONT...WITH NE-SE WIND SHIFT...DEVELOPS E OF THE LOW AND LIFTS NE ACROSS S FL AS THE LOW MOVES SE TO NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU AND THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A NE-SW RIDGE SETS UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRI VEERING WINDS TO THE S. THESE SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THEN 20-25 KT JUST AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT OFF TX COAST SAT EVENING. GFS SUGGESTING MINIMAL POST FRONTAL GALE BEGINNING SUN MORNING. CARIBBEAN... WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW WATERS ATTM WITH NLY WINDS 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES S OF HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST SEPARATING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN AS IT DRIFTS W TO ALONG 77W SUN WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENTS ALONG THE TROUGH BASE WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY AS WE HAVE HAD A CYCLONIC SPIN OFF/ON NEAR PANAMA THE PAST WEEK. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE IS ALREADY BRIDGING THE FRONT. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT WITH THE NEXT FRONT LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN. TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 55W-65W... YESTERDAYS FRONTAL TROUGH STILL EVIDENT W OF THE AREA N OF HISPANIOLA WHILE THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY REACHING 22N65W AROUND SUNRISE WED THEN QUICKLY STALLING AND THEN MOVING W OF AREA AGAIN WED NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL EXTEND E-W JUST N OF AREA THU-FRI MAINTAINING ELY 15-20 KT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS TO 12 FT IN LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS MIXING WITH N SWELLS. THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES 22N65W AROUND MID DAY SAT...STALLING SAT NIGHT AND THEN PUSHED W OF AREA SUN AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA WILL BE ABSORBED TONIGHT BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA LATE WED THEN DRIFT W AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W THU...WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS MOVING E AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS STRONGER RIDGING BUILDS SW OVER THE WATERS W OF 70W. ON WED A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE FRONT E OF N FL THU-FRI THEN MOVING N OF THE AREA SAT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES..POSSIBLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE EARLY SUN...NW OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING THE GA COAST SUN AFTERNOON. GALE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. .AMZ080...GALE CONDS EXPECTED N OF 29N EITHER SIDE OF FRONT SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GMZ080 AND GMZ084 AND GMZ086...GALE CONDS EXPECTED SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON