000 AGXX40 KNHC 070750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST TUE DEC 07 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE GULF WITH ITS WESTERN PORTION EXTENDING WNW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN GULF ZONE TOWARDS NE MEXICO. HIGH PRES IS BUILDS E AND SE ACROSS THE AREA. REPORTS FROM BUOYS STATIONS ACROSS THE GULF ARE SHOWING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF 87W AS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0212 UTC LAST NIGHT...N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT BETWEEN 87W AND 92W AND NE TO E WINDS OF 10-15 KT W OF 92W EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE WHERE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING STRONGER NE TO E WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH N-NW 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR SW CORNER W OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 6-9 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF TO 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-2 FT N OF ABOUT 28N. EXPECT THE CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE MORNING. WINDS IN THE NW PORTION WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT TODAY AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE RESIDUAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 21N96W MOVING S. LATEST MODELS RUNS ALONG WITH THOSE FROM 12-18 HOURS AGO ARE IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN HOLDING ON TO THIS LOW OR ANOTHER FORMING IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE PRESENT ONE...OR PERHAPS FURTHER TO THE N OF IT. MODELS INCLUDING THE REGIONAL NAM STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE WEAKER OF THE SOLNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN FROM THE EASTERN GULF S THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAGGED BY THE LOW AS IT MOVES SE. MODEL WIND GUIDANCE ALSO IN MORE AGREEMENT THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND NW OF THE LOW WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT DURING THU. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA LATE THU BUT APPEARS TO WASH OUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S AND SE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR THE W CENTRAL SECTION OF THE SEA WHERE AN ASCAT PASS INDICATED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED N-NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA SW AND W TO INLAND THE SOUTHERLY PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE E THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT MERGES WITH THE TROUGH ON WED AND BEGINS TO MOVE W THU THROUGH SAT WITH MODELS TENDING TO HINT AT LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WED AND BEING SITUATED TO NEAR GULF OF PANAMA FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS BUILD UP TO 10 FT IN THE FAR SW WATERS LATE WED THROUGH THU...AND TO 11 OR 12 FT BY LATE THU AND FRI...THEN DIMINISH TO 5-8 FT SAT. THE LARGE SEAS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN LARGE FETCH AREA AND LONG DURATION OF THE N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS. BUOYS N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC INDICATE THAT A BATCH OF N SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT WILL SURGE S INTO THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATER TODAY...AND TO REMAINDER OF THOSE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT BY WED YET ANOTHER SURGE OF SWELLS FROM THE NE WILL MIX WITH THE N SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS UP TO 11 FT TO INVADE MOST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND FRI PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W SW TO EASTERN CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 25N65W TO HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND FROM 24N65W TO NEAR MONA PASSAGE WED BEFORE IT STALLS OUT AND REMAINS NEAR THAT LOCATION THROUGH SAT. A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW MAY FORM ON THE TRAIL END OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA FRI AND SAT AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ECMWF MODELS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS A RESULT OF LARGE LOW PRES N OF THE AREA AND HIGHER PRES THAT BUILDS SE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 27N THROUGH MOST OF WED BEFORE DIMINISHING TO NW 10-15 KT WED EXCEPT TO NW-N 5-10 KT TO THE W OF 71W. UPSTREAM BUOY 41048 AT 32N69.5W IS REPORTING COMBINED SEAS OF 15 FT IN NW SWELLS. EXPECT THESE LARGE SWELLS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 FT. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE N-NE 10-15 KT BY WED WITH THE MAIN ISSUE OF N SWELLS...UP TO 8 OR 9 FT AFFECTING THE SE WATERS TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS WED. ON THU WINDS BECOME N-E AT 10 KT OVER THE NE SECTION OF THE AREA E OF THE STALLED FRONT AND TO E-SE 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT. LARGE MIXED N AND NE SWELLS LEADING TO SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL EXIST THERE. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN THE FRONT OVER THE SE PORTION AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WINDS INCREASE TO NE 20-25 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION FUNNELING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON FRI AND SAT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NE AT ABOUT 15 KT...WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION AS A N TO S TROUGH DEVELOPS N OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE