000 AGXX40 KNHC 061759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST MON DEC 6 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY SLOWING OVER THE W GULF WITH HINTS OF A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT AT 22.5N 96.5W THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BUT REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY FROM THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST...AND AMPLIFYING N ALONG TX COAST EARLY TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BECOMING MORE AGREEABLE WITH A SECOND FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED NEAR 27N94W. GUIDANCE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...BUT GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE SE TO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND DRAG THE FRONTAL REMNANTS S AS A COLD FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEFORE STALLING AGAIN. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL GO WITH NLY 20-25 KT N OF FRONT AND LOW PRES. POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SLY ALL WATERS FRI...AND SW 15-20 KT EARLY SAT WITH NEXT FRONT OVER NW WATERS AROUND SUNSET SAT PASSING THROUGH ENTIRE GULF AT SUNSET SUN. CARIBBEAN... COLD FRONT OVER EXTREME NW WATERS ATTM WITH NLY WINDS 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A TROUGH IS DEVELOPING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE N COAST OF COLUMBIA AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST SEPARATING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SE AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED. GUIDANCE HANGING ONTO A WEAK LOW PRES OR TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF PANAMA AND W COLOMBIA WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING AGAIN. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MERGED FRONT AND TROUGH...AND THE LOW PRES TO THE S WILL INCREASE N WINDS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE INTO FRI. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W ON THU AND FRI WITH WINDS E OF THE TROUGH INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WED AND THU...DIMINISHING BACK TO 10-15 KT ON FRI. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH SAT WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACH YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SAT NIGHT. TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 55W-65W... A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION NEAR 22N65W WILL MOVE BACK W OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED WINDS NEAR FRONT ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...8-10 FT SEAS IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL IS ALREADY SEEPING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. A SECOND FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT 22N65W TUE NIGHT AND STALL. ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD W ON WED-FRI AND PUSH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS W OF AREA...BUT ADVECT A NEW BATCH OF NE LONG PERIOD SWELLS REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGE LATE WED...AND CONTINUING S PASSING THE TRINIDAD LATITUDE THU MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT ELY 15-20 KT ACROSS ENTIRE AREA FRI DIMINISHING TO 15 KT SAT. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... THE COLD FRONT RACING SE AND EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE EXTREME SE PORTION N OF PUERTO RICO TUE NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO DRIFT W WED. A SECONDARY NW SURGE IS ALREADY OVER THE NW PORTION AND WILL INCREASE THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW WATERS EARLY TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. NLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ALL WATERS WED AS LONG PERIOD NE SWELL SPREADS W ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE WED AND IMMEDIATELY STALL...AND SHIFT W BECOMING A N-S COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE NE FL COAST FRI. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE E AGAIN EARLY SAT...DISSIPATING SAT NIGHT AS SLY FLOW SETS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING TO THE GA COAST SUNRISE SUN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GALE FORCE SLY WINDS WILL PRECEDE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. .AMZ080...GALE WRNG POSSIBLE N OF 29N W OF 77W LATE SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON