000 AGXX40 KNHC 060729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST MON DEC 6 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA W TO 24N90W AND NW TO A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING WEAK LOW NEAR 24N96W AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND AS HINTED BY A VERY SMALL PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0414 UTC. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING S ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BRINGING IN MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AS EVIDENT BY REPORTS FROM BUOYS STATIONS N OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS ARE N-NE 20-25 KT E OF 91W AND NE 15-20 KT W OF 91W. SEAS RANGE FROM 6-9 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF TO 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 24N...AND 1-2 FT S OF 24N. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT WITH ITS FAR WESTERN EXTENSION HANGING UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE LOW IF DOES MATERIALIZE AS INDICATED ABOVE. EXPECT THE CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND TUE...WITH N WINDS IN THE OF 15-20 KT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO E-SE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING E. QUESTION MARKS REMAIN WITH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL W GULF LOW E OF NE MEXICO MATERIALIZING ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT DURING THE WEEK. LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS HINT AS SOME FORM OF WEAK LOW OR FRONTAL WAVE FORMING THERE. LATEST GFS RUN IS STILL QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS WED AND THU. UKMET IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO GFS WITH WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF WED AND THU. THE ECMWF SHOWS THESE WINDS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE SW GULF WED AND THU. WILL LEAN TOWARD THESE WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SEAS UP TO AROUND 7 OR 8 FT BY THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE SEA WHERE AN ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEALED NE WINDS OF 20 KT AS WELL AS FOR WATERS SE OF OF HISPANIOLA AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THU AS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A TROUGH ALONG THE S AMERICA COAST REMAINS IN TACT TO SUPPORT THESE WINDS. WINDS INCREASE TO N 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA ON MON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSED OVER THE FAR NE PORTION THU WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES W. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS BUILD TO 9 OR 10 FT IN THE FAR SW WATERS LATE TUE THROUGH THU. BUOYS N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC INDICATE THAT A BATCH OF N SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE S INTO THE MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON THROUGH WED WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MIXED N AND NE SWELLS WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT EXPECTED ON THU AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 215N65W SW TO THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. W-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 22N. WINDS ARE MUCH STRONGER AWAY FROM THE FRONT TO THE N OF 29N WHERE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR MINIMAL GALE FORCE E OF ABOUT 80W. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE W-NW 10-15 KT EXCEPT TO THE S OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE WINDS ARE N-E 10 KT. SE OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT W OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT N OF 29N WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE RANGER OF 8-10 FT. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN N SWELL SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THROUGH MON. LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE THE N CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND INTENSIFY THROUGH MON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY SUN EVENING...FROM 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY MON MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WED AND THU AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. THE CURRENT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N ARE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...BUT SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS A RESULT OF LARGE LOW PRES N OF THE AREA AND HIGHER PRES THAT BUILDS SE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY N OF 26N INTO TUE...WITH STRONG WINDS UP TO 30 KT E OF 71W. BY LATE TUE...NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT IN NW SWELLS ...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO NW 10-15 KT WED EXCEPT TO NW-N 5-10 KT TO THE W OF 71W. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE N-NE 10-15 KT BY WED WITH THE MAIN ISSUE OF LARGE N SWELLS...IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT AFFECTING THE SE WATERS TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS AT THAT TIME. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS WED. ON THU...WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E AT 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LARGE MIXED N AND NE SWELLS LEADING TO SEAS OF 8-10 FT THERE. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE NW-N GENERALLY ABOUT 10-15 KT EXCEPT OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR N WINDS OF 20 KT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA ...AND WINDS N AT 15 KT ELSEWHERE S OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF 80W ... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE