000 AGXX40 KNHC 050753 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SUN DEC 5 2010 CORRECTED DAY OF WEEK MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FORM ACROSS THE AREA ARE REPORTING PRETTY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A HIGH CENTER OF 1021 MB NOW HAVING SHIFTED S TO 25N88W. HIGHEST SEAS BEING REPORTED ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SEAS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 2-3 FT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS INCREASING W WINDS HAVE BUILD SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE S INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...AND REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT ...THEN ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA MON NIGHT WITH ITS WESTERN EXTENSION EXTENDING NW AS A TROUGH TO ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG TEXAS COAST THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER SE LOUISIANA. EXPECT MODERATE N FLOW ON MON OVERSPREADING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE AREA. BY EARLY TUE THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS...IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT FROM THE N...WILL BE EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONE AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER ON TUE AND WED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. ON WED AND THU THE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH HIGH PRES TO ITS N. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR NE W WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS THERE SHOULD BUILD UP TO AROUND 7 FT BY THU. GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE OPPOSITE WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION ON WED AND THU FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF. GFS IS ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING THE WINDS THERE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR WED AND THU WIND FORECAST FOR THAT PART OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SW TO JUST S OF JAMAICA AND TO NE NICARAGUA. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEALED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRIMARILY TO THE S OF THE TROUGH TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND TO THE S OF 16N AND E OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND BY A COUPLE OF SHIPS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SEA. THE SAME ASCAT PASS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SHIP "PINX" IN THE PASSAGE NEAR 19.7N 74.1W. THESE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THU AS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A TROUGH ALONG THE S AMERICA COAST REMAINS IN TACT TO SUPPORT THESE WINDS. WINDS INCREASE TO N 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA ON MON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSED OVER THE FAR NE PORTION THU WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES W. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS BUILD TO 9 OR 10 FT IN THE FAR SW WATERS LATE TUE THROUGH THU. BUOYS N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC INDICATE THAT A BATCH OF N SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE S INTO THE MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON THROUGH WED WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MIXED N AND NE SWELLS WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT EXPECTED ON THU AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 215N65W SW TO THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. W-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 22N. WINDS ARE MUCH STRONGER AWAY FROM THE FRONT TO THE N OF 29N WHERE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR MINIMAL GALE FORCE E OF ABOUT 80W. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE W-NW 10-15 KT EXCEPT TO THE S OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE WINDS ARE N-E 10 KT. SE OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT W OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT N OF 29N WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE RANGER OF 8-10 FT. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN N SWELL SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THROUGH MON. LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE THE N CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND INTENSIFY THROUGH MON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY SUN EVENING...FROM 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY MON MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WED AND THU AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. THE CURRENT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N ARE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...BUT SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS A RESULT OF LARGE LOW PRES N OF THE AREA AND HIGHER PRES THAT BUILDS SE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY N OF 26N INTO TUE...WITH STRONG WINDS UP TO 30 KT E OF 71W. BY LATE TUE...NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT IN NW SWELLS ...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO NW 10-15 KT WED EXCEPT TO NW-N 5-10 KT TO THE W OF 71W. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE N-NE 10-15 KT BY WED WITH THE MAIN ISSUE OF LARGE N SWELLS...IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT AFFECTING THE SE WATERS TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS AT THAT TIME. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS WED. ON THU...WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E AT 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LARGE MIXED N AND NE SWELLS LEADING TO SEAS OF 8-10 FT THERE. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE NW-N GENERALLY ABOUT 10-15 KT EXCEPT OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR N WINDS OF 20 KT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA ...AND WINDS N AT 15 KT ELSEWHERE S OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF 80W ... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE