000 AGXX40 KNHC 040758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FORM ACROSS THE AREA ARE REPORTING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS THAN THE PREVIOUS THROUGHOUT WITH HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N87W. HIGHEST SEAS BEING REPORTED ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SEAS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY AT 2 FT. MOSTLY LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST SAT ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE PORTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE S AND WEAKEN. OVER THE FAR SE PORTION A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS OF 15 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE S INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT...AND AND REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS SUN NIGHT...THEN ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA MON NIGHT WITH ITS WESTERN EXTENSION EXTENDING NW AS A TROUGH TO ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG TEXAS COAST THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER SE LOUISIANA. EXPECT MODERATE N FLOW ON MON OVERSPREADING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE AREA. BY EARLY TUE THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS...IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE N...WILL BE EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONE AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER ON TUE AND WED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. ON TUE AND WED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF SW GULF TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS THERE SHOULD BUILD UP TO 6 OR 7 FT WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARDS PASSAGE SW TO NE HONDURAS. A SMALL PARTIAL ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W SHOW NE 20 KT WINDS TO THE W OF THE FRONT. TO THE E OF THE FRONT THE FLOW IS MORE NELY 15-20 KT. FRESH NNE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIB THROUGH FRI AND KEEP SEAS THERE AT 7 TO 9 FT...WITH NLY SWELL PUSHING DOWN INTO COASTAL NICARAGUA. FURTHER S...A WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PRESSURES RISING THROUGH SUN THERE. ELSEWHERE...N TO N WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SW AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE TAIL END OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THAT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. ON TUE AND WED THE N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA WITH WAVEWATCH MODEL INDICATING SEAS BUILDING TO 9 OR 10 FT IN THE FAR SW WATERS LATE TUE INTO WED. BUOYS IN THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT N TO NE SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING. HOWEVER...A NEW BATCH OF NE SWELLS OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL ARRIVE MON...WITH YET ANOTHER BATCHES ARRIVING TUE INTO WED IMPACTING THE FAR NE ATLC PASSAGES. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. W-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED TO THE W OF THE FRONT W TO NEAR 74W EXCEPT N OF 29N WHERE WINDS ARE MUCH HIGHER FROM THE NW AND IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. TO THE SW OF THE BAHAMAS WINDS ARE N TO NE 15 TO 20 KT. A COUPLE OF SHIPS SAILING ENE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE REPORTING NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT. SE OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT W OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT N OF 29N WHERE LARGE NW SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS OF 9-12 FT. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN N SWELL SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF OF THE AREA TO THE N OF 21N LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE THE N CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY SUN THROUGH MON AS IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY SUN AFTERNOON ...FROM 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY MON MORNING...THEN WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 25N65W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA BY LATE TUE...THEN SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER FAR SE WATERS WED. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECEDED BY GALE FORCE WINDS SE OF IT TO 28N AND E OF 78W ON SUN AS PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS A RESULT OF LARGE LOW PRES N OF THE AREA AND HIGHER PRES THAT BUILDS SE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY N OF 25N INTO TUE...WITH STRONG WINDS UP TO 30 KT E OF 71W AND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED N OF 29N. BY LATE TUE...NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS WITH SEAS 11-16 FT IN NW SWELLS ...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO NW 10-15 KT WED EXCEPT TO W-NW 5-10 KT TO THE W OF 71W. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE N-NE 10-15 KT BY WED WITH THE MAIN ISSUE OF LARGE N SWELLS...IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT AFFECTING THE SE WATERS TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS AT THAT TIME. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 78W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE