000 AGXX40 KNHC 030730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST FRI DEC 3 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FORM ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING A CONTINUING DECREASE OF WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS ALONG AND NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING. HIGHEST SEAS REPORTED ARE ABOUT 6 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SEAS ELSEWHERE S OF 26N IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...AND 1 TO 2 FT N OF 26N. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL PERSIST SAT ACROSS THE GULF AS THE HIGH BECOME SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF. A FRONT WILL SAG S OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N FLOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH FURTHER S ON SUN...AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY SUN EVENING. EXPECT MODERATE N FLOW ON MON...DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF TUE AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE AREA. BY EARLY TUE THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS...IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE N...WILL BE EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN ZONE. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER ON TUE AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. ALSO ON TUE...A COASTAL TROUGH THEN SETS UP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SMALL PARTIAL ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W SHOW NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP NEAR 17N86W BE. TO THE E OF THE FRONT THE FLOW IS MORE NELY 15-20 KT. FRESH NNE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIB THROUGH FRI AND KEEP SEAS THERE AT 7 TO 9 FT...WITH NLY SWELL PUSHING DOWN INTO COASTAL NICARAGUA. FURTHER S...LOW PRES PERSISTS OVER PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP WEAK LOW PRES IN THIS AREA THROUGH SAT...THEN SHOW MSLP RISING...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS HARMONY ON SPECIFIC LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE LOW CENTERS. IN SHORT...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SW COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE BAHAMAS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. BUOYS IN THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT N SWELLS TO ABOUT 7 FT 8 FT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW BATCH OF NE SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W...THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO 22N77W BY EARLY FRI...AND FROM 22N65W TO 19N68W BY EARLY SUN. BUOYS ALONG WITH A 15Z ASCAT PASS SHOW FRESH N WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS N OF 24N E OF 75W FRI AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN N SWELL WILL BUILD IN THE WATERS E OF 75W. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE SAT...BRINGING A NEW ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO 21N75W BY TUE MORNING. A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY N OF 25N INTO TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING AGAIN TO 8 TO 15 FT IN N AND NW SWELL...MAINLY N OF 28N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE