000 AGXX40 KNHC 021930 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST THU DEC 2 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASCAT DATA SHOWED FRESH NE FLOW OVER THE FAR SE GULF STILL...WITH A SHIP REPORTING 25 KT ALONG THE NW CUBAN COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FRESH NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE NE GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL PERSIST SAT ACROSS THE GULF AS THE HIGH BECOME SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF. A FRONT WILL SAG S OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER S...EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY SUN EVENING. EXPECT MODERATE N FLOW ON MON AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM NW CUBA TO NE MEXICO BY MON EVENING. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW WATERS ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NLY FLOW...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE FAR SW GULF ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC W OF 55W... COLD FRONT HAS STALLED...FOR NOW...ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CARIB FROM JUST CENTRAL CUBA TO THE WRN COAST OF HONDURAS. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS NNE AT 20-25 KT...AND MORE NELY 15-20 KT ON THE E SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. FRESH NNE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIB THROUGH FRI AND KEEP SEAS THERE AT 7 TO 9 FT...WITH NLY SWELL PUSHING DOWN INTO COASTAL NICARAGUA. FURTHER S...LOW PRES PERSISTS OVER PANAMA. A 15Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF THE LOW...DOWN FROM 20 TO 25 YESTERDAY. THERE MAY BE HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF PANAMA NEAR THE LOW HOWEVER. GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET MAINTAIN WEAK LOW PRES IN THIS AREA THROUGH SAT...THEN SHOW MSLP RISING...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS HARMONY ON SPECIFIC LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE LOW CENTERS. IN SHORT...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SW COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE BAHAMAS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. BUOYS IN THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN HINT OF N SWELL TO 8 FT PUSHING INTO THE ATLC PASSAGES...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT GETTING MUCH FURTHER INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BEFORE DECAYING TO BELOW 8 FT. THIS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A NEW BATCH OF NE SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W...THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO 22N77W BY EARLY FRI...AND FROM 22N65W TO 19N68W BY EARLY SUN. BUOYS ALONG WITH A 15Z ASCAT PASS SHOW FRESH N WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS N OF 24N E OF 75W FRI AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN N SWELL WILL BUILD IN THE WATERS E OF 75W. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE SAT...BRINGING A NEW ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO 21N75W BY TUE MORNING. A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY N OF 25N INTO TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING AGAIN TO 8 TO 15 FT IN N AND NW SWELL...MAINLY N OF 28N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN