000 AGXX40 KNHC 011929 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE OF THE GULF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASCAT PAS FROM 15Z ALONG WITH CONCURRENT BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. MEXICAN BUOYS AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS IN THE FAR SW GULF INDICATE GALE CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY ENDED. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE TEXAS COAST WHERE 1030 MB HIGH PRES IS NOTED. LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NW GULF STARTING TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS. FRESH NE FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM S FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN THROUGH THU...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON SUN...REACHING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY SUN EVENING...THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE MON. FRESH N FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH...EVENTUALLY STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO WESTERN HONDURAS BY LATE THU NIGHT. BUOYS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW S OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...BUT THIS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THU INTO FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES PERSISTS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...EMBEDDED IN AN ELONGATED TROUGH PARALLELING THE N COAST OF PANAMA. GFS...ECMWF AND THE UKMET ALL SHOW A WEAK LOW PERSISTING OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST THU INTO SAT...N OF THE GULF OF URABA. NONETHELESS...GRADIENT FLOW WILL DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL UP TO 8 FT WITH 13 SECOND PERIODS WILL PUSH INTO ATLC PASSAGES TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT...BUT DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... A FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N76W WILL SHIFT SE...REACHING FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY THU...FROM 29N65W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY FRI...FROM 24N65W TO NORTHERN HAITI BY EARLY SAT...THEN STALLING AND DISSIPATING N OF PUERTO RICO SUN. FRESH N FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH LATE THU. SW TO W WINDS WILL INCREASE N OF 28N LATE SAT AHEAD OF A STRONG REINFORCING FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SUN...REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE SUN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SECOND FRONT TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUN. WITH TIGHT GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA N OF 28N SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER DYNAMICS LIFTING OUT AND THE LOW PRES MOVES MORE NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE SUN...LEAVING THE FRONT TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS S INTO MON WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING NE OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN