000 AGXX40 KNHC 010757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD FRONT HAS RACED SE TO THE ERN GULF...FROM THE BIG BEND AREA TO ALONG THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. A RECENT 0236Z ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS EXTENDING TO 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT...WITH A SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KT NEAR 25N89W. WITH THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT AT THIS RANGE IN VELOCITY...GALES WERE LIKELY NEEDED E OF 90W FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF JUMPED FROM 5 FT TO 20 FT IN 5 HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH 20 FT WILL DISPLACED AND ABOVE WWIII GUIDANCE. FORECAST REGRESSION FOR 20 FT FOR SUCH A FETCH INDICATES THAT A SOLID 40 KT WOULD HAVE BEEN REQUIRED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THIS FETCH TO REACH 20 FT. AN 18Z OB FROM THE PEMEX BUOY BMO IN THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE REVEALED SWH REACHING 4.9 M OR 16 FT...AGAIN WELL ABOVE WWIII...BUT SPATIALLY LOCATED WELL BY WWIII ENSEMBLE MAX. ADDITIONALLY...MY WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY WAS UNDERDONE BY SEVERAL FT ACROSS THIS AREA. CURRENTLY...WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF HAVE BEGUN TO VEER SLIGHTLY FROM NNW TO NNE AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS GALES SHIFT FARTHER S AND BECOME CONFINED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO REACH FROM NEAR SARASOTA TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN BY 12Z THIS MORNING ANS THEN MOVE MORE SLOWLY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL HAVE BEGUN TO VEER MORE NE BY THEN AS THE FORCING HIGH MOVES ACROSS SE LA...WHILE WINDS BEGIN TO TURN E TO SE ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF. GALES ARE LIKELY TO END ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY AROUND 18Z TODAY...WITH WIND AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THU. FRESH NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE NE GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WINDS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR ERN GUFMEX AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN. A 0234Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF SOLID 25 KT ENE FLOW BETWEEN 69W AND 75W WITH SMALL SPOTS OF 25-30 KT JUST E OF BARAHONA PENINSULA OF THE DOM REP AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CENTRAL CARIB. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WSW ACROSS THE BASIN NEXT 12-18 HRS WITH SEAS BUILDING 12-14 OR 15 FT ACROSS THE SW CARIB. LOW TO MID LVL VORT CENTER PROPAGATING WWD ACROSS THE SW CARIB IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT WSW INTO THE EPAC WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEWER LOW FARTHER TO THE E OFF OF COLOMBIA. WE ARE STILL NOT BUYING INTO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW ACROSS THIS AREA SHIFTING E OR ENE. RECENT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLES OF THIS LOW MOVING ESE INTO COLOMBIA AND WEAKENING...WHILE REMAINDER OF GLOBAL MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE ENERGY WSW INTO THE EPAC. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL FROM E ATLC GALE CENTER OF A FEW DAYS AGO ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS MAJORITY OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTO NE CARIB ISLANDS AND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE STRONG SURF ACROSS THE REGION. MIXED NE WIND SWELL AND THIS LONGER PERIOD SWELL WILL PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 9-11 FT ACROSS THESE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OFF THE NE CARIB AND THROUGH THE EXPOSED PASSAGES TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE GUFMEX FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CARIB THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE TO TO W ALIGNED ALONG ABOUT 21.5N FRI WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT. N TO NNE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRIDGE THE BOUNDARY AND MAINTAIN HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE WRN CARIB FOR A FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH INTO SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... OLD COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SW INTO THE NE CARIB ISLANDS AS THE HIGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC BEGINS TO BECOME SQUEEZED AND WEAKEN. SLY FLOW W OF 76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME SSW THEN SW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS MORNING AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND N FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST 10-12Z THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW...EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO WESTERN CUBA...FOLLOWING WEAK HIGH PRES SHIFTING E BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY FRI...FROM 26N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY SAT...THEN STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE N OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY SUN. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE DOMINATED BY MIXED NE WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NE SWELL...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT E OF 75W TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING 8 TO 9 FT THU AND FRI. BUILDING SEA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE NNW FLOW 20-25 KT WILL DRIVE SEAS 8-10 FT BY THIS EVENING. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING