000 AGXX40 KNHC 301834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WED MORNING. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT ALONG THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THIS EVENING...AND TO 35 KT OVER THE FAR SW GULF TONIGHT. THE STRONG PERSISTENT WINDS AND LONG FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 14 FT IN THE SW GULF. THE FRONT WILL PASS SE OF THE AREA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. FRESH NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE NE GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LATEST BUOY...ASCAT...AND WINDSAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRES OFF THE N COAST OF PANAMA. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADES TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY THU. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BEHIND HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE AREA...AND THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DOWN THE NICARAGUAN COAST. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND ITS SLOW DRIFT E THROUGH FRI. STILL SOME VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE STRONGER GFS AND NAM VERSUS THE ECMWF REGARDING INTENSITY. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A MODEL BLEND...ALLOWING FRESH SW MONSOON TROUGH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF PANAMA ACROSS THE ISTHMUS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW THU INTO SAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE LOW PRES DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA SAT INTO SUN. MEANWHILE THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS ALLOWING THE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH INTO SUN. IN THE SHORT TERM...NE SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT WITH 12 SECOND PERIODS IS PUSHING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES...ALTHOUGH WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT ONCE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A WEAK COLD FRONT COLD FRONT ALONG 22N THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1037 MB HIGH OVER NOVA SCOTIA TO CENTRAL CUBA. BUOYS SHOW GENERALLY MODERATE SE TRADES IN THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG FLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW...EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO WESTERN CUBA...FOLLOWING WEAK HIGH PRES SHIFTING E BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY FRI...FROM 26N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY SAT...THEN STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE N OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY SUN. 8 TO 12 FT NE SWELL WITH 13 SECOND PERIODS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WED...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT THU AND FRI. A SECOND PUSH OF 8 TO 13 FT NE SWELL ENTERS THE WATERS E OF 75W ON SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GALE WARNING. .GMZ082...GALE WARNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN