000 AGXX40 KNHC 300750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEARING THE TEXAS COAST...WHERE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE BECOME S TO SW AT 10-15 KT. FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACH FROM ATCHAFALAYA BAY TO NEAR 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BY 12Z. NLY GALES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN BY 09Z OFF THE S TEXAS COAST AND WILL ADJUST THE GALE WARNING IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. GALES TO 40 KT...WITH POSSIBLE SMALL AREAS TO 45 KT...WILL SPREAD S AND SE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...THEN BECOME CONFINED TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THUS MAKING THIS A 24 HOUR EVENT. SEAS TO BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THIS STRONG FLOW WITH MAX SWH NEAR 15 FT S OF 22N TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT E FROM TX TO SE LA WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRI BEFORE SLIDING E ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF. THIS POSITION WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT GRADIENT FOR NE FLOW 15-20 KT OVER THE E GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE LIGHT E WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH FRI...THEN BECOME SE TO S SAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER SLIDES E. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT...AND NE WIND 20-25 KT WINDS...ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...WHILE MORE ELY FLOW OF 20-25 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB TO 82W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WED AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOW IN THE SW CARIB THU AND FRI AND MOVES IT NE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHILE GFS ENSEMBLE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHIFT A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS W-SW THROUGH THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND INTO THE EPAC. EXPECT A WEAK E-W TROUGH AND LATER A SMALL LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BUT ATTM THE GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER AND ARE OPTING TO DISCOUNT THAT AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. AS WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A STRONG PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL REACH THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC AND ISLANDS...AND BLEED THROUGH THE PASSAGES. VERY HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS SHALLOW WATERS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THE FAR SE BAHAMAS TO THE SRN WINDWARDS WITH THIS SWELL EVENT. SW N ATLC... A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS HUNG UP ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA JUST N OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 22.5N66W AND WILL SINK FURTHER S AS STRONG HIGH PRES PERSISTS ACROSS THE NW ATLC NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING S EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE NE CARIB ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT. PRESENTLY...NE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 72W...WHILE SE FLOW 20-25 KT WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 30 KT IS OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT W OF 72W....WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT 8-10 FT. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MODESTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT...AND BECOME S TO SW 20-25 KT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF N FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST EARLY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z WED. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BERMUDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS THU MORNING THEN DISSIPATE FRI. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED JUST E OF THE AREA NEAR 29N53W WED NIGHT INTO THU. LONG PERIOD NELY SWELL MIXED WITH NE WIND WAVE WILL DOMINATE THE SE WATERS WED AND THU WITH COMBINED SEAS 8-11 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GALE WARNING. .GMZ082...GALE WARNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING