000 AGXX40 KNHC 290752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE GULF SUN HAVE LIFTED N AND BECOME ILL DEFINED...WITH BOUNDARY FROM JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE W-NW ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO OFFSHORE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS. RETURN FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED W OF 90W ATTM...WITH S-SE WINDS 20-25 KT OFFSHORE OF THE SRN TEXAS COAST AND SEAS TO 8 FT...WHILE E-SE WINDS 20-25 KT RECENTLY INDICATED BY A 0318 ASCAT PASS N OF THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE LA-MS COASTS. SLY FLOW WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE BASIN TO 86W THIS AFTERNOON AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TEXAS... AND THEN MOVES OFF THE TEXAS AND FAR SW LA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES AND COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE NW GULF TUE MORNING AND REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO VERACRUZ TUE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BY WED AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL NLY GALES ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE...BEGINNING OFF THE SE TEXAS S OF 27N AND MOVING S WITH THE FRONT INTO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 10-14 FT. THE GFS IS HINTING AT GALES EXTENDING 90 NM TO THE N OF THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE ENTIRE EXPANDS OF THE FRONT...AND ONLY THE NAM IS QUITE THAT EXPANSIVE WITH THESE GALES. WILL HOLD TO 30 KT BEHIND FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ATTM UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER CONSENSUS. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE LA COASTAL PLAINS THU INTO FRI WITH A RIDGE SW ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A NE FLOW AT 10-15 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE LIGHT SE WINDS SET AS EARLY AS THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 1030 MB HIGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD IS BUILDING SE AND SLOWLY INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S AND SE ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE CARIB AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING LARGE AREA OF 25 KT WINDS W OF 66W...WITH TERRAIN ENHANCED FLOW OFF THE COAST OF THE DOM REP YIELDING A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT...WHILE NORTHERLIES TO 20 KT EXTEND NE AND E TO 19N TO BEYOND 55W. AS THE HIGH SHIFT SLIGHTLY E NEXT 24 HOURS AND FORCES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W ATLC S AND SE...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER AND SPREAD THE 25 KT FLOW W TO ABOUT 82W AND E TO NEAR 65W...WITH AREAS TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE MONA PASSAGE S OF THE DOM REP. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY WED AS GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO SHRINKING HIGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOW IN THE SW CARIB THU AND FRI AND MOVES IT NE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHILE GFS ENSEMBLE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHIFT A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS W-SW THROUGH THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND INTO THE EPAC. WE ARE STILL DISCOUNTING THIS DEVELOPMENT AND NE MOVEMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N ALONG THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHILE SINKING SE E OF 70W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED ENE WINDS 25 KT N OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG 75/76W...WHILE GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT E OF 72W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S-SE AND WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS...MOVING TO ALONG 20N E OF 70W BY WED MORNING. NELY WIND SWELL TUE WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE LARGE E ATLC LOW...WITH THESE LARGE NE SWELL STRONGLY AFFECTING THE NE CARIB THROUGH SE BAHAMAS...WITH COMBINED SEAS FORECAST CURRENTLY BY WWII 8-11 FT WED AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST WED MORNING...LATER THAN YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. THIS SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BERMUDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS THU MORNING THEN DISSIPATE FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUE. .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AND TUE NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING