000 AGXX40 KNHC 231734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EST TUE NOV 23 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE RETURN FLOW IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING ALONG A SWATH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SLY OVER ALL WATERS LATE THU JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST AROUND SUNSET. THIS FRONT MOVES E TO PSN FROM TAMPA BAY TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT BEFORE LOSING MOST OF ITS SE PUSH. GUIDANCE WASHES OUT FRONTAL REMNANTS E OF 90W SAT NIGHT...BUT AS USUAL... HANGS ONTO REMNANTS OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO SUN MORNING. PARENT HIGH PRES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHIFTS RAPIDLY E ACROSS MS VALLEY WITH SLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AT 15-20 KT AGAIN ALL GULF WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. EXPECT CAA TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE W OF FRONT OVER SW ZONE BRIEFLY FRI AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... GUIDANCE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE NOW WITH THE WEAKENING TREND TO THE NE TRADES EXCEPT FOR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE E-SE 10-15 KT FROM THU-SUN. SEEMS AS IF GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NE 20-25 KT OVER E CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN. NE SWELL TRAIN CURRENTLY OVER TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL SUBSIDE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN NEXT ROUND OF N SWELLS ARRIVE AT 22N BETWEEN 55W-65W FRI AFTERNOON DRIVING SEAS HEIGHTS TO 10-15 FT. SUBSIDING SEAS TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING S AND REACHING COAST OF S AMERICA EARLY SUN. EXPECT SEAS TO 12 FT TO BLEED INTO NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE FRI NIGHT. SW N ATLC... E-W RIDGE JUST N OF AREA MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS OVER WATERS N OF BAHAMAS. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT S OF 27N WITH NE-E WINDS 15-20 KT. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N CENTRAL WATERS WED AND RACES TO THE SE PORTION THU BEFORE SLOWING. MOISTURE GUIDANCE HANGS ONTO REMNANTS OF FRONT AND MOVES THEM N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT AROUND PERIPHERY OF BACKDOOR RIDGE FRI AS NEXT COLD FRONT RACES OFF GA COAST. GFS TAKES THIS SECOND FRONT THROUGH BERMUDA LATE SAT...BUT STALLS IT ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THESE FAST MOVING FRONTS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT WIND SHIFTS OVER WATERS W OF 65W...BUT 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT OVER WATERS S OF BERMUDA BETWEEN 65W-55W. LARGE N SWELLS WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT THU WITH SEAS HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 30 FT NEAR 31N55W LATE THU...AND SEAS 8-15 FT WILL REACH FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO NE CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI S OF 25N W OF 95W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON