000
AGXX40 KNHC 230616
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 AM EST TUE NOV 23 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE 18Z GFS HELD MORE H5 ENERGY BACK OVER THE SW U.S. AND 
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRI AND SAT...MAKING IT LESS VIGOROUS WITH 
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THAN THE 
12Z ECMWF AND UKMET. THE 18Z NOGAPS WAS EVEN MORE ADAMANT ABOUT 
HOLDING ENERGY BACK...CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE SW U.S. ON FRI 
AND WAITING UNTIL SAT TO SEND A MUCH WEAKER FRONT THROUGH THE 
GULF. THE NOGAPS APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER AND HPC THINKS THE 
GFS...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND 
UKMET TO CARRY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD WELL 
NORTH OF THE GULF...IS TOO FAST. THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD 
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOW STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND 
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE 
ECMWF AND UKMET FORECASTS WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN STRONGER 
WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS. GALE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND NEAR THE COAST 
OVER THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES OVER S 
AMERICA WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE 
ATLC HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...LOOK FOR THE EASTERLY TRADES TO 
VERY SLOWLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN 
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN.

SW N ATLC...
20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT S OF 27N ACCORDING TO 
NUMEROUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY 
THROUGH THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH PRES ERODES. UNCERTAINTY COMES 
INTO THE FORECAST WED WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE N PORTION OF THE ZONE AND QUICKLY MOVING SE 
OF THE AREA ON THU. THE 18Z GFS WAS FASTER TO BRING THE FRONT S 
AND DID SO FARTHER W THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. MORE OF THE EARLIER AND 
CURRENT MODELS FAVOR A STRONGER DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOR THIS 
TROUGH TO PASS OVER WHICH FORCES IT MORE THE THE E LIKE THE 
ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION BUT KEEPS 
WINDS TO 20 KT CLOSER TO THE COAST OF N FLORIDA WED NIGHT THAN 
THE ECMWF. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO STRAYS FROM THE GFS WITH THE 
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GULF FRI AND MOVING THROUGH NW WATERS 
OVER THE SW N ATLC SAT. AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFERENCES DISCUSSED 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE 
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE 
FAVORED ECMWF AND UKMET AND THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT UP FARTHER 
NE THAN THE FAVORED SOLUTION SAT.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI S OF 25N W OF 95W...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER