000 AGXX40 KNHC 221943 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST MON NOV 22 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MID-ATLC COAST SW TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE VEERED AROUND TO THE SE AND S AT 15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE PORTION WHERE BOTH HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN AND ARE INDICATING PREDOMINATELY E WINDS OF 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FOUND TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION N OF 24N AND W OF 94W RETURN S WINDS FLOW IS OF 15 TO 20 KT. SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INDICATED SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW PORTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST WHERE A 7 FT MAXIMUM IS BEING REPORTED BY BUOY 42020 NEAR 27N97W. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS S OF 24N E OF 84W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE ABOUT 2 TO 4 FT RANGE. AGAIN THE 1200 UTC RUN OF THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL APPEARS REASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO THESE REPORTED VALUES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE OVERALL FOR THIS FORECAST. WILL STAY ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER COMPARED TO GUIDANCE FOR THE SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING AS E SWELLS FROM THE SW ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO SURGE WESTWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE FAR SE GULF WATERS. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING THIS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS LIFTS NE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST BY THU NIGHT...AND INTO THE NW GULF COAST BY FRI MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF FRONT INTO THE GULF AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE FRONT WILL BE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 25N91W TO 19N95W BY LATE FRI NIGHT THEN SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TO 25N88W TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF CANADIAN AIR MASS ORIGIN BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE S INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO GALE CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE SW GULF ON FRI W OF 95W...AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY CONSIDER PERHAPS ADDING GALE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF BASED ON FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 30 KT OVER THE SECTION S OF 27N AND W OF 95W IN THE NW GULF ZONE (080) FOR FRI. THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR SEASTATE VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN OUTPUT FOR SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF WHERE IT SHOWS SEAS PEAKING UP TO 12 FT BY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE DECREASING THEM QUICKLY TO 8 FT SAT AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A SWATH OF NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE NW SECTION WITH BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W INDICATING NE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. THE SAME ASCAT PASS REVEALED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO 11 FT IN THIS AREA AS REPORTED BY BUOY 41044 NEAR 22N59W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL LET UP AS THE PARENT HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH SOME WED THROUGH SAT...HOWEVER LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND ATLC PASSAGES AND THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH WED...AND LAST INTO SAT FOR THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED A SWATH NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITH STEADY 25 KT WINDS S OF ABOUT 27N WITH SEAS 10 TO 11 FT AS REPORTED BY BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS PUERTO RICO. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO BEING CHANNELED TO THE S OF THE SE BAHAMAS AND SW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND ALSO TOWARDS THE COAST OF CUBA. STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH S OF 25N WED THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA LATE WED...AND SHIFT E OF THE AREA THU. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI...AND QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO S CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SAT AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT S TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER SPEEDS POSSIBLY TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF 31N. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO NW ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI S OF 25N W OF 95W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE