000 AGXX40 KNHC 220726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST MON NOV 22 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BUOY...SHIP...AND ASCAT DATA SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS GULF WATERS. THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH TEMPORARILY ON TUE AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. LOW PRES WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED...ALLOWING THE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF TO INCREASE AGAIN AND PERSIST THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF WATERS ON FRI...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM APALACHICOLA TO THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE FRI. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THIS AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT...HINTING THAT WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE ALONG THE STATE OF VERACRUZ COASTLINE BY FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SHIP...BUOY...AND ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...TO THE SOUTH OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND U.S. EAST COAST. WHILE BUOYS AND ASCAT SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NE FLOW...MAINLY N OF 15N...SHIP OBSERVATIONS HINT THAT STRONGER WINDS...PERHAPS UP TO 30 KT ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO OBSERVATIONS TO CONFIRM IT...THE WAVEWATCH INITIALIZES WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO NE SWELL. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY ARE NOTED S OF 26N...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST. BUOYS SHOW SEAS ARE UP TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL S OF 26N AS WELL IN THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY AS WELL. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE THU...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE FRI...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW WINDS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI S OF 25N W OF 95W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN