000 AGXX40 KNHC 191950 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST FRI NOV 19 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NW MISSISSIPPI EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAKENING NEARLY TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO 25N90W AND TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...E TO SE IN DIRECTION OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE PORTION WHERE BOTH HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DUE TO A CONTINUING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AREA AND LOW PRES OF 1012 MB OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AS FOR SEA STATE...BUOYS THROUGHOUT ARE REPORTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT SEAS N OF 25N AND 4 TO 7 FT S OF 27N WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SE PART OF THE GULF SE OF A LINE FROM SW FLORIDA TO 19N93W. SEAS ARE ABOUT 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST RUN OF THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL APPEARS ABOUT 2 FT UNDONE IN THE SE PART OF THE GULF WHERE THE NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE HIGH PRES AREA WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO JUST OFFSHORE THE SE U.S COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE THE TROUGH DISSIPATES AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS DRIFTS WESTWARD INTO BELIZE AND HONDURAS AND WEAKENS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WINDS IN THE SE PART OF THE GULF DIMINISH TO 20 KT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE WINDS ELSEWHERE VEER AROUND TO THE SE TO S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGH CENTER NOW FURTHER OFFSHORE THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST AND WHILE AT THE SAME A COLD FRONT MAKES HEADWAY THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS. WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SE TO S AT 15 TO 20 KT SAT NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND APPROACHES THE COAST BY EARLY WED EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A 1013 MB LOW IS SITUATED NEAR 17N86W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A RATHER STEADY SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS NE OF THE FRONT AND LOW...WITH BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W REPORTING NE 20 KT AS WELL. THE SAME ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF NE 20 TO 25 THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND BELIZE AND GUATEMALA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHARPLY INCREASE THE NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TUE...THEN DECEASE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION WED. WAVEWATCH PEAKS SEAS TO 12 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THEM TO 8 OR 9 FT BY LATE WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED A SWATH OF N TO NE 20 KT WINDS N OF ABOUT 24N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W WITH BUOYS AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SIMILAR SPEEDS WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT...THE HIGHEST OF WHICH ARE N OF 28N. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN ADDITION A COUPLE OF SHIPS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA ARE REPORTING NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS PUSHES TO JUST SE OF THE AREA AND INTO THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE WESTERN MOST EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA BY MON BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. THE MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AND TO PART OF DAY 5 (WED) WILL BE THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE HIGH PRES AREA THAT OVERTAKES THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS GRADIENT WILL BE SEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WITH NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT INCLUDING ALL EXPOSED PASSAGES. WAVEWATCH MODEL BUILDS SEAS UP TO 11 FT TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS BECOME RATHER LIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH DAY 5 AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SE TO OVER THOSE WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE