000
AGXX40 KNHC 190651
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. TO THE SOUTH...A 0326 UTC 
ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. BUOY 42055 ALSO IS SHOWING 20 KT NE WINDS. 
THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND A 1012 MB LOW PRES AREA 
TO THE SOUTH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MODERATE TO FRESH NE 
WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLY THE SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF 
THE GULF. ELSEWHERE LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE 
SAT...WHEN SE RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NW GULF...AHEAD OF 
A LOW PRES AREA MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W...
SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA FROM THE PAST 3 HOURS INDICATE 
GENERALLY 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 65W. A 
SHIP REPORTED 25 KT THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND ASCAT DATA 
SHOWED 20 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE ELEVATED WINDS 
ARE FOUND BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRES IN THE EAST CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 65W...AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS. 
BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW 20 KT WINDS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS...AND HIGH PRES BUILDING WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE 
SOUTHERN U.S. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT S 
AND DAMPEN OUT. NONETHELESS...AS HIGH PRES BUILD N OF THE 
AREA...EXPECT THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIKEWISE...AS THE HIGH 
PRES SHIFTS E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT AND SUN...TRADES WILL 
INCREASE OVER THE TROP N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...
A COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED BY AREA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE 
IMAGERY FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ASIDE FROM ONE 
SHIP OBSERVATION NEAR 30N75W THAT SHOWS 25 KT BEHIND THE 
FRONT...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND 
THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS 
COOLER AIR FILTERS S BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER 
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX DOWN. THE 
FRONT WILL SAG S AND EXTEND FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS 
EVENING...WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FOLLOWING. THE FRONT 
WILL STALL AND START TO WEAKEN FROM 21N THROUGH EASTERN CUBA BY 
LATE SAT AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. HIGH PRES WILL 
EXTEND FROM THE SE U.S. TO THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND 
BERMUDA BY LATE SAT. THIS WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
ACTIVE S OF 27N MON AND TUE.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN