000
AGXX40 KNHC 170647
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM FL BIG BEND TO CENTRAL BAY 
OF CAMPECHE. WINDS W OF FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 
KT. SLY WINDS E HAVE FRONT HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED AND BUOY REPORTS 
OF 8 FT SEAS EARLIER ARE NOW SUBSIDING. EXPECT FRONT TO HANG UP 
BRIEFLY OVER EXTREME SE WATERS TONIGHT. A SECOND DRIER FRONT 
WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH HIGH PRES IN WAKE 
OF BOTH FRONTS STRENGTHENING AND PUSHING BOTH FRONTS E OF AREA 
EARLY THU. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW TO SE IN WAKE 
OF FRONTS WILL SHIFT E AS THE PARENT HIGH PRES QUICKLY SHIFTS E 
ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WITH RIDGE ORIENTATED NE TO SW ACROSS THE 
NW WATERS LATE FRI...THUS SETTING UP SLY FLOW SPREADING E ACROSS 
ENTIRE GULF SAT AND SUN. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS GFS TENDS TO 
HANG ON A PORTION OF THE SECOND FRONT OVER THE MS DELTA FRI AND 
MOVES IT NW OVER LA COASTAL PLAINS SAT. IF THIS HAPPENS...AND 
NOT CONVINCED THAT IT WILL...IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY 
WEAK NE TO SE WINDS SHIFT AND SHOWERS.       
 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W...A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND IS 
ORIENTATED NW TO SE WITH SURFACE LOW PRES OCCASIONALLY SHOWING 
UP IN OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRI THEN STRONG 
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE NE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT WITH 
BROAD LOW PRES SURVIVING ONLY OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN ON 
SAT AND SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL BRIEFLY OVER SE GULF AND 
NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY THEN PUSH SE INTO FAR NW 
CARIBBEAN WATERS THU AS NE WINDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY 20 KT. BY 
FRI NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC 
WATERS AS COLD FRONT STALLS OVER ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS AND TRAILS W OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE 
TROUGH WILL PASS W THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY 
ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.  

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE 
TO RETRACT EASTWARD TODAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS.
SLY WINDS NW OF RIDGE CURRENTLY IN 10-15 KT RANGE WILL SHIFT TO 
NW BEHIND FRONT BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT INTO 
EARLY THU. A SECONDARY N SURGE WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT SUPPORTING 
N-NE 15 KT WINDS WITH A POCKET OF 20-25 KT OVER ATLC WATERS S OF 
BERMUDA ON FRI...WITH POCKET OF ENHANCED WINDS SHIFTING FURTHER 
S TO OVER THE SE BAHAMAS SAT...AND OVER PUERTO RICO TRENCH AREA 
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. BY THEN NE-E WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 
10 TO 15 KT OVER NW WATERS.  

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON