000 AGXX40 KNHC 161835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. BUOY REPORTS SHOW S TO SW WINDS AT 20-25 KT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH GULF WATERS TO THE E OF FRONT WHILE NW TO N WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED NW OF FRONT AT THE MOMENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W THIS EVENING. THEN...WINDS W OF FRONT WILL QUICKLY VEER TO N AND NE AND DIMINISH ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL FROM SE GULF ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED. A SECOND DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF LATE WED INCREASING N WINDS TO 15-20 KT ENTIRE GULF WATERS THU WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TO E AND DIMINISHING LATE FRI. SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP NW WATERS SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N78W. SHIP A8HJ7 LOCATED N-NE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER REPORTED SE WINDS OF 20 KT. EXPECT THE LOW PRES CENTER TO DRIFT NW AND WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH MEANDERING OVER THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MINIMAL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A BELT OF E TO SE WINDS OF 20 KT IS STILL NOTED BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A RIDGE N OF AREA PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SE GULF AND NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL WED...THEN PUSH SE INTO FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS WED AS NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT NW OF THE FRONT THU AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT. BY FRI NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AS COLD FRONT STALLS OVER ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND TRAILS W OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY WITHIN 240 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS. A PAIR OF BUOYS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AND THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOW WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO FL STRAITS. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT EASTWARD ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TONIGHT. SLY WINDS NW OF RIDGE CURRENTLY IN 10-15 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N W OF 75W. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO WESTERN CUBA LATE WED...AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE THU...AND STALL OVER THE SE WATERS FRI AND SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS FRI AND SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR