000 AGXX40 KNHC 151828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 28N94W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO MOBILE BAY ALABAMA AND FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHING SW TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. BUOY REPORTS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH GULF WATERS MAINLY N OF 25N. WINDS ARE ALSO STARTING TO PICK UP TO 20 KT OVER THE SW GULF W OF 95W. BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N94W AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT NE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE TUE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. FRESH N FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE...THEN DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE WED. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THU AND FRI AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AND NOW THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT 1200 UTC...A 1008 SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N77W. WINDS OF 20 KT AREA NOTED WITHIN 100 NM OF LOW CENTER PER SURFACE DATA AND THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THIS SYSTEM IS INHIBITING ITS DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NW TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN COAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR NE WINDS TO 20 KT S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. N SWELL THROUGH THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. TRADES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA AND THE LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... LIGHT TO MODERATE N FLOW IS NOTED E OF 70W AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SWELLS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH BUOYS 41046 AND 41047 BOTH REPORTING 7 FT AT AROUND 1800 UTC. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST N OF REGION NEAR 32N75W. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE N OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF 75W TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES SE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED. EXPECT S TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU. NW WINDS INCREASE N OF THE FRONT LATER ON THU AS REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/EC