000 AGXX40 KNHC 150612 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 110 AM EST MON NOV 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTERED OFF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUOY REPORTS ALONG WITH A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT NE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE TUE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. FRESH N FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE...THEN DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE WED. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THU AND FRI AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W... SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR NE WINDS TO 20 KT S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1009 MB LOW PRES WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PERSISTS N OF PANAMA ALTHOUGH THERE IS EVIDENCE OF BROAD CURVATURE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED N AND W OF THE LOW. DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THIS SYSTEM IS INHIBITING ITS DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NW TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN COAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE WINDS AND SEA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. N SWELL THROUGH THROUGH THE MONA PASS CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 8 FT TODAY. TRADES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA AND THE LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE N FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BUOYS SHOW SWELL OF GENERALLY 8 TO 10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE N OF THE BAHAMAS TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES SE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU. NW WINDS INCREASE N OF THE FRONT LATER ON THU AS REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN