000
AGXX40 KNHC 141830
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NEAR 
TAMPICO MEXICO. BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS
NW OF THE FRONT. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REST 
OF THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHEN 
SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NE MEXICO 
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS MON AND TUE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 25-30 KT E OF THE FRONT. 
SINCE GFS IS TYPICALLY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE 
FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTION SHOWING GENERALLY 
20 KT FLOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST OF THE LOW REINFORCES THE 
FRONT...WHICH SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. COOLER
AIR WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF TUE. 
WINDS DIMINISH WED AND THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 
55W...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR NE WINDS TO 20 KT S OF THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE. A 1009 MB LOW PRES WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PERSISTS
N OF PANAMA ALTHOUGH THERE IS EVIDENCE OF BROAD CURVATURE IN THE
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED N AND W OF THE LOW. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
STILL POSSIBLE AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NW TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN 
COAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE WINDS AND SEA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
N SWELL THROUGH THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES FROM MONA PASS TO THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS CLEARLY WANING TODAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 8 FT BY MON. TRADES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N 
OF THE AREA AND THE LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...
NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW NEAR 34N59W CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH. ASCAT SHOWS MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS PERSISTING ONLY 
IN THE NE PORTION OF AREA N OF 28N E OF 73W. BUOYS SHOW SEAS 10 
TO 15 FT IN N SWELL NE OF THE BAHAMAS...ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD...
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LESS THAN 8 FT BY MON NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW 
WILL INCREASE N OF THE BAHAMAS TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT 
PUSHES SE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED. THE FRONT WILL STALL
FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU. NW WINDS INCREASE N OF THE 
FRONT LATER ON THU AS REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL