000 AGXX40 KNHC 140659 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST SUN NOV 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STALLING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. BUOYS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS TO THE NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. BUOYS SHOW LIGHT ANTICYCLONE FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MON...WHEN SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS MON AND TUE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF THE FRONT. THE GFS TYPICALLY IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING GENERALLY 20 KT FLOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL REINFORCE THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON TUE. WINDS DIMINISH WED AND THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W... BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR 20 KT NE FLOW IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1009 MB LOW PRES PERSISTS N OF PANAMA...ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH ORGANIZED CONVECTION CURRENTLY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NW TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN AND HONDURAN COASTS...BRINGING SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS AND SEA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. LONG PERIOD N SWELL CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE ATLC PASSAGES FROM THE MONA PASS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE ATLC SIDE OF THE LEEWARDS. SEAS IN THESE AREAS MAY BE AS HIGH 9 FT...BUT THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY MON. LOOKING AHEAD...TRADES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA AND THE LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... N WINDS AREA DIMINISHING WITH ASCAT AND BUOYS SHOWING GENERALLY MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS LOW PRES NEAR BERMUDA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. BUOYS SHOW SEAS TO BE 10 TO 15 FT IN N SWELL OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD...AND WILL SUBSIDE LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE MON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE N OF THE BAHAMAS TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND STALL FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY THU. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE N OF THE STALLING BOUNDARY LATER ON THU AS REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN