000 AGXX40 KNHC 131845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NW GULF. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE BRIEFLY 25-30 KT AS IT ENTERED THE GULF BUT BUOY DATA NOW SHOWS 20 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM S CENTRAL LA TO NE MEXICO AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE S TEXAS COAST. THE LOW PRES WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD LOUISIANA THROUGH MON...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT TRAILING TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. GFS MODEL SHOWS THE FRONT OCCLUDING OVER ALABAMA TUE...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE OCCLUSION TO THE YUCATAN. THE FRONT OVER THE GULF DISSIPATES WED. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MON THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROP N ATLC. ASCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT OVER THE REGION EXCEPT THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES. 1009 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST HAS LOST CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES APPEAR POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS STEADILY DECREASED TODAY. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LONG PERIOD N SWELL TO 9 FT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES LATER TODAY. A FINGER OF N SWELL PUSHING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE WILL DELIVER SEAS OF 6 FT TO THE ABC ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN. THIS SWELL IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE TROP ATLC WATERS WATERS TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. N SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR S AS BARBADOS SUN BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOWED 20-25 KT NW TO N WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 1000 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N64W. THIS LOW HAS GENERATED VERY LARGE N SWELL TO NEAR 24 FT IN THE SW N ATLC. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LARGE SWELL EVENT HAS PEAKED AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL LINGER INTO MON E OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS SWELL SUBSIDES BELOW 8 FT BY TUE...JUST AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES MOVING ENE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED...AND STALLS FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA EARLY THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL